## Low-carbon primary aluminium demand aggregation as key enabler of industry transformation

14 May 2025

The need to decarbonize the world has driven sustainably conscious corporations to seek cleaner inputs and alternative materials resulting in ever growing demand for aluminium. The scaling of low-emissions alternatives, however, requires large upfront investments and price premiums on clean industrial products to compensate for new capital investments. The process of consolidating individual demand from multiple buyers into a single, larger market signal reduces individual first-mover risk and unlocks economies of scale for deployment of breakthrough technologies.Meeting emissions goals requires special technologies not yet available at scale. But a different approach to critical market demand can lead to needed scale up and mainstream adoption of key technologies for heavy emitting sectors. According to the Net Zero Industry Tracker, demand for low-carbon and near-zero industrial products makes one of five key enablers of Net-zero transformation.The First Movers Coalition (FMC), an initiative hosted by the World Economic Forum, gathers the most ambitious corporate buyers of clean industrial products. These companies are motivated to drive value chain transformation across seven different high-emitting industrial sectors by using its collective purchasing power.At midpoint through the decade designated for this transformation, in early 2025, the FMC Aluminium Sector Members sought to quantify their future annual demand for low-carbon primary aluminium by 2030. The goal was to produce an aggregated, anonymized volume estimate to inform potential suppliers on the scope of the green market opportunity associated with FMC primary aluminium purchasing commitment.


## The process of demand aggregation and quantification

The FMC partnered with RMI, a US-based non-profit organization dedicated to sustainability research, to carry necessary calculations. Participation was voluntary, with approximately one third of the 21 FMC aluminium sector companies providing data, i.e., their purchasing volumes with a 3-6 months’ time lag. For opt-out members, RMI projected purchase volumes of aluminium based on publicly available data based on product types, etc. The process also followed three core safeguards to ensure this information was developed in full adherence with competition and anti-trust law (adherence to sustainability and public good objective, aggregated and anonymized data use, and voluntary opt-in for the initiative members).Primary aluminium ingots were used at the single most common aluminium product purchased by the FMC members. Demand for primary ingot volumes was calculated based on the types of products (e.g. rolled, extrusions etc.) and the recycled content. Due to this approach, the forecasted demand volume was aligned with the FMC purchasing product definition despite the fact that the majority of FMC members, corporates that made the FMC aluminium purchasing commitment, are in fact indirect primary ingot buyers.Based on the above premises, determined aggregated primary aluminium demand for the participating members was estimated at 240,000 tonnes for 2030 alone. Depending on the growth rate assumptions applied to the reported data, this figure could vary between 212,000 and 269,000 tonnes, a level of demand that could effectively support an entire low-carbon aluminium smelter facility operating at around 200,000 tonnes per year. Beyond these participating members, the total quantified aggregated demand volumes for low-carbon primary aluminium produced with less 80% less emissions than the industry average (below 3 tonnes of CO2e per tonne of primary aluminium), as stipulated by the FMC commitment, was estimated at 655,000 tonnes for 2030.

Further qualitative insights from this exercise highlighted several challenges surrounding demand forecasts. Depending on their position in the value chain, and mode of primary aluminium procurement (directly or indirectly), different industry players face the following: Semi-fabricators often purchase primary aluminium directly, but their demand for low carbon aluminium is largely driven by their customers’ demand and sensitivity to green premiums (willingness to pay) . Fabricators may procure low-carbon primary aluminium both directly and indirectly across various product lines; their challenge comes from the uncertainty around both supply and customer demand.End producers may have hundreds of products containing aluminium in varying quantities and with differing levels of recycled content; to calculate the exact primary aluminium demand, one needs detailed data on product categories, share of recycled content, and material use rates for transforming primary ingots into finished goods.


## Lessons from the first movers and the next steps

Given unique position of the First Movers, the FMC is able to share several important lessons:Firstly, FMC member demand is sufficient for at least one – and potentially several – new or retrofitted low-carbon aluminium smelters.  As such, it represents an excellent opportunity for producers to work directly with committed buyers to build the business case for the investments in the breakthrough clean technologies needed to produce aluminium aligned with the ambitious low-carbon threshold adopted by FMC.  Given the wide range of aluminium-containing product types for which data was submitted through this process, buyers and producers will need to consider various alternative chain-of-custody carbon accounting models and partnership options to establish the necessary links between supply and demand in order to capitalize on this opportunity.  This process highlighted the connections between FMC members based on their different roles along the aluminium supply. When calculating the demand from the survey data, RMI considered these positions to reduce the likelihood of double counting demand volumes. These connections also highlight the opportunity for members who are already aligned on goals relating to low-carbon aluminium purchasing to work together to fill out an entire decarbonized supply chain. Feedback from participating companies indicated that the process allowed them to better assess and understand their own projected volumes of low carbon material. Most reported that the requested data was relatively easy to collect, albeit from disparate sources. As such, this process represents a low-effort way to more clearly signal their demand and identify new potential supply opportunities.Quantifying the FMC aluminium demand volume is only the first step towards fulfilling the FMC purchasing commitment. As seen in other sectors, buyers can work collaboratively through a request for information (RFI) to surface specific supply projects. This type of collaboration combines many tools that are needed to execute long term, forward-looking offtake agreements for low-carbon materials. These include product-level emissions performance standards, emissions verification, project evaluation, and due diligence and innovative chain of custody methods. Quantified demand estimate makes the first key step in jump-starting the market for the low-carbon aluminium production technologies needed to accelerate this critical sector’s transition.Notes on methodology:– For FMC members who did not directly report individual 2030 demand volumes, demand data was calculated based on their current primary aluminium demand volumes data reported directly by companies, or publicly available data. This information – alongside appropriate compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) specific to each company and sector – was used to inform 2030 projections.– Some gaps in the demand estimates calculation remain. Not all the FMC aluminium members reported actual 2030 demand data. The rest was estimated using projected growth rates. In some cases, specific end-use sectors that participate in the FMC were not represented in the survey data (although these sectors are relatively small contributors to the overall volume).– Estimated demand for low-carbon aluminium in 2030 depends on multiple factors, including: market factors such as sectoral growth rate and customer appetite; availability of data for accurate calculations of required primary aluminium volumes from end-products, and overlaps within the aluminium value chain in which one industry player’s demand could be met by another’s supply (double-counting).Disclaimer:The information contained in this presentation is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute professional or legal advice. Companies are advised to consult with appropriate professionals and exercise independent judgment before making any business or operational decisions based on the content herein.