12 March 2026

The message was clear: while the technologies to decarbonize aluminium and steel are advancing, the central bottleneck is no longer innovation but economic clarity and commercial scale. Across buyers, suppliers, policymakers and financiers, participants aligned on one core insight: without transparency on costs, premiums, policy trajectories and risk allocation, capital will not flow at the speed required to scale near-zero production.

First movers are operating in an increasingly fragmented geopolitical and regulatory landscape. Certification systems are diverging across regions, trade measures are tightening and short-term economic pressures are influencing long-term decarbonization strategies. In this environment, transparency becomes a competitive advantage. Expanding credible demand signals, supporting breakthrough production pathways and strengthening the competitiveness of low-emission metals remain central priorities. Stable and predictable public policy frameworks were widely recognized as essential to stimulate demand, provide investment certainty and accelerate the energy transition. Governments have a critical role to play in shaping markets proactively and ensuring alignment between industrial competitiveness and climate ambition.

Buyers highlighted persistent uncertainty around large-scale availability of near-zero materials, the magnitude and durability of green premiums, evolving carbon pricing frameworks and the real cost curves of emerging technologies. Willingness to pay a “green premium” remains limited in many markets. A reframing gained traction during discussions: embedding additional costs as a “technology cost” within long-term planning rather than treating them as optional add-ons. Internal carbon pricing is increasingly used to reinforce this discipline. However, the question of cost absorption remains unresolved, with risk unevenly distributed across suppliers, traders and buyers and limited transparency on allocation. Participants emphasized that conventional transactional procurement models are insufficient and that longer-term partnerships, direct value-chain engagement and innovative business models will be necessary to manage exposure and build trust.

Producers face structural challenges including high upfront capital expenditure, volatile energy prices, scrap constraints and regulatory complexity. The investment logic remains straightforward: without reliable and visible demand, capital deployment stalls. Fragmented demand signals across regions weaken long-term planning confidence. Energy availability and affordability sit at the heart of the transition. Electricity price volatility has already forced capacity reductions in certain markets, underscoring the vulnerability of energy-intensive production. While clean production technologies are advancing, scaling near-zero aluminium and steel ultimately depends on access to reliable, cost-competitive low-carbon electricity. Grid readiness, pricing stability and infrastructure deployment remain decisive constraints.

Evolving carbon pricing systems, carbon border adjustment mechanisms and tightening sectoral regulations are reshaping the economics of metals production. Decarbonization compliance is now a price-relevant variable rather than a peripheral ESG consideration. The convergence of emissions trading reforms, procurement mandates and sector-specific rules could generate substantial additional demand for low-emission steel over the coming decade, provided implementation is predictable and credible. Regulatory clarity on timelines, scope and long-term ambition is essential, as uncertainty directly affects investment decisions, contract structures and financing conditions.

Despite growing ambition, near-zero metals markets remain opaque. Diverging certification frameworks, inconsistent emissions accounting methodologies and fragmented demand across products and geographies limit price discovery and investor confidence. Participants stressed that simplification, harmonization and credible verification systems are prerequisites for a functioning and scalable market. Transparent benchmarks and durable pricing mechanisms are necessary to attract institutional capital and support long-term contracting. Without alignment on standards and traceability, fragmentation will continue to undermine competitiveness and slow market maturation.

Financiers emphasized that capital exists but projects are struggling to reach financial close. Permitting delays, litigation risk, regulatory uncertainty and the gap between non-binding demand signals and firm offtake contracts are significant barriers. Bankability hinges on predictable revenue streams, balanced risk-sharing and regulatory stability. Successful models combine targeted public support with private capital mobilization, using blended finance and revenue-stabilization mechanisms to de-risk early-stage investments. The transition requires coordinated action across buyers, producers, policymakers, financiers and infrastructure providers to build credible revenue stories that unlock large-scale investment.

The roundtable underscored a shared ambition to move beyond technological optimism toward economic transparency and commercial deployment. Scaling near-zero aluminium and steel requires aligned demand signals, harmonized standards, predictable policy frameworks and credible risk allocation across the value chain. The technologies are advancing and capital is available; the next phase depends on transforming transparency into trust and trust into sustained investment.