Insights

The UK faces a complex budget trade-off between defence and welfare spending, but these represent fundamentally different types of expenditure. Defence funding is "final" spending on military personnel and equipment, directly consuming national resources and competing with other vital services like healthcare and education. Welfare spending mainly comprises transfer payments redistributing income without directly using goods or services, supporting recipients who often reinvest in the economy. While increasing welfare can boost incomes and productivity with limited inflation impact, raising defence budgets risks inflation and diverts resources from civilian production. Defence spending can foster innovation and prevent costly conflicts, but also entails long-term maintenance costs and uncertainties. Effective economic management requires recognizing these distinctions rather than framing the budget challenge as a simple welfare-versus-war choice.
What ‘warfare versus welfare’ gets wrong about real‑life economics
The UK faces significant security threats including sabotage, hacking, drone attacks, and undersea cable reconnaissance, yet remains alarmingly unprepared. Its defensive capabilities are minimal, with a reduced surface fleet, limited land-based anti-air and missile defenses, and vulnerability to drone swarms. While the nuclear deterrent remains crucial, it offers little protection against lower-level conflicts. Defence spending cuts and slow procurement systems have eroded readiness, unlike agile Ukrainian defense startups. The UK must invest in rapid-defense innovations and address vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure to counter Russian threats amid uncertain US support for European security.
The UK is alarmingly unprepared for the threats it faces – security expert explains why
Prediction markets, which allow trading on future events such as elections, interest rates, and wars, have surged dramatically amid today’s polycrisis of geopolitical, economic, and social uncertainties. Originating from Francis Galton’s concept of the wisdom of crowds and later expanded by Kenneth Arrow, these markets aggregate dispersed knowledge to reveal probable outcomes. Their rapid growth—increasing from under $16 billion in 2024 to potentially over $300 billion in 2026—stems from rising uncertainty that fuels disagreement and market activity. Embedded in political and media ecosystems, prediction markets not only reflect but also shape public beliefs and political behavior, creating feedback loops where politicians may adapt strategies to influence market probabilities.
Financial services
Prediction markets have made uncertainty itself a tradable asset
Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party achieved a historic landslide victory in the 2026 Hungarian elections, ending 16 years of Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz rule and reshaping the Hungarian party system. Historically marked by cultural polarization centered on issues like the Treaty of Trianon, Hungary’s party politics saw Fidesz shift from liberal anti-communism to nationalist conservatism under Orbán, who established an illiberal democracy blending economic nationalism with clientelism. Opposition parties remained fragmented, failing to challenge Fidesz effectively until Tisza emerged as a strong centrist force, consolidating opposition votes and sidelining older parties. Tisza’s rise signals a fundamental realignment in Hungary’s political landscape, challenging long-standing cultural and economic divides.
How Péter Magyar and Tisza remade the Hungarian party system
Industrial operations are transitioning from traditional automation to intelligent, connected, and increasingly autonomous systems driven by frontier technologies like AI, physical AI, and quantum technologies. Organizations are evolving from isolated pilots to integrated models where humans and intelligent systems collaborate in real time. This shift spans the entire industrial value chain, moving operations from assisted intelligence to adaptive, self-orchestrating systems. The outlook provides leaders with practical insights on leveraging new capabilities, anticipating operational evolution across short- and medium-term horizons, and making strategic governance, workforce, and investment decisions to build resilient, adaptive, and sustainable operations.
ICT
Intelligent Industrial Operations Outlook 2026
Industrial operations are evolving from traditional automation to intelligent, connected, and increasingly autonomous systems driven by frontier technologies like AI, physical AI, and quantum computing. Organizations are transitioning from isolated pilot projects to real-time collaboration between humans and intelligent systems. This shift progresses from assisted intelligence to adaptive, self-orchestrating operations across the industrial value chain. The outlook provides leaders with practical insights on value creation, operational evolution over the NOW–NEAR–NEXT horizon, and key governance, workforce, and investment decisions crucial for building resilient, adaptive, and sustainable industrial operations.
ICT, Education
Intelligent Industrial Operations Outlook 2026
Effective public debt management in the Lao PDR hinges on three core principles: enhanced transparency, strategic borrowing guided by a credible medium-term debt strategy (MTDS), and integrated fiscal risk management. Transparency must extend beyond headline debt figures to include comprehensive disclosure of liabilities, especially those from state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and public–private partnerships. Strategic guidance through a public MTDS helps coordinate borrowing decisions, reducing fragmentation and fiscal risks. Integrating fiscal risk assessments into budget and debt frameworks is vital to identify and address contingent liabilities proactively. Key challenges include treating SOE risks as on-budget issues and building institutional capacity to implement reforms. Sustained efforts in these areas are critical for debt sustainability and fiscal credibility.
Financial services
Beyond the Numbers: 3 Design Principles for Public Debt Management in the Lao PDR
Geopolitical risks and economic pressures increasingly impact healthcare systems worldwide, straining funding and staffing while influencing global supply chains. Europe holds a strong position economically but must overcome internal divisions to retain investment and improve healthcare infrastructure. Rising energy costs, inflation, and high public debt divert resources away from healthcare, exacerbated by aging populations and workforce shortages, as seen in Spain. Technology, especially AI and telemedicine, offers promising solutions but requires coordinated data strategies. Key reforms include data-driven approaches, reorganizing care with technology, aligning incentives with outcomes, fostering public-private partnerships, and embracing calculated risks to ensure healthcare sustainability.
Greece, Hungary, Iceland, South Africa, Spain, Switzerland | Education, Financial services, Health
How geopolitical changes can affect healthcare systems
Three consecutive U.S. administrations have prioritized adopting artificial intelligence (AI) across the federal government. Recent assessments show AI use has accelerated since 2020 but remains concentrated in a few large agencies. Challenges include workforce shortages, a risk-averse culture, procurement and funding obstacles, and low public trust. To advance responsible AI adoption, the government should enhance technical talent and AI literacy, reform structural barriers in procurement and budgeting, increase transparency, and focus on impactful applications that improve government services for Americans.
Assessing the state of AI adoption across the federal government
The geoeconomic Zeitenwende marks the resurgence of power politics within global markets, highlighting economic activity as a tool for advancing foreign and security policy objectives alongside prosperity. Effective analysis and strategy in foreign, security, and economic policy demand a precise understanding of geoeconomics to realistically evaluate the costs, benefits, and success potential of geoeconomic measures. To enhance German geoeconomic policy, recommendations include establishing interagency structures for coordinated geoeconomic efforts, improving collaboration with business and academic stakeholders, and strengthening international cooperation with aligned partners.
Germany
The Return of Power Politics to the Market: Theory and Practice of the Geoeconomic Zeitenwende
The UK has cut its international aid budget from 0.5% to 0.3% of GNI to allocate more funds to defence, reducing aid to £9.2 billion annually. Most aid is now concentrated on conflict zones like Ukraine and Sudan, while support to many African countries is significantly reduced. A growing portion of aid is spent domestically on refugees and housing. The government emphasizes partnerships over dependency, reflecting a shift towards development financing through increased domestic taxation in recipient countries and private investment, despite political and accountability challenges. However, these alternatives offer no quick fix, highlighting the need to rebuild the moral case for aid.
Africa, Latin America | Financial services, Health
The UK is spending more on defence – but is raiding the aid budget the best way to pay for it?
The report "Growth in the New Economy: Towards a Blueprint," based on insights from over 11,000 global business leaders and the World Economic Forum’s Future of Growth Initiative, identifies essential strategies and dilemmas shaping economic growth through 2030. It highlights key drivers, barriers, and opportunities amid deep structural changes, including advancing artificial intelligence, increased geostrategic competition, high debt levels, demographic shifts, and evolving environmental and societal priorities. The analysis emphasizes the need for long-term growth strategies by governments and businesses to navigate these complexities and balance immediate crises with sustainable development.
Africa | Financial services, Education, Health, ICT
Growth in the New Economy: Towards a Blueprint
The report "Growth in the New Economy: Towards a Blueprint," based on insights from over 11,000 business leaders and two years of dialogues, identifies critical strategies, dilemmas, and drivers shaping growth by 2030. It highlights how deep structural changes—such as advances in AI, intensified geostrategic tensions, high debt levels, demographic shifts, and evolving environmental and social priorities—are redefining the economic landscape. The report emphasizes the need for governments and businesses to adopt a long-term growth perspective to address these challenges and leverage emerging opportunities effectively.
Africa | Financial services, ICT, Health, Education
Growth in the New Economy: Towards a Blueprint
Governments globally are confronting the challenges and opportunities presented by AI in governance and public service enhancement. This study critically examines the evolving geographies of governance amid digital transformation and polycrisis, focusing on AI’s impact on civil society organizations providing advisory services in Wales and England. Key considerations include addressing regional differences and devolution, fostering connections with citizens, and managing issues of discontent and trust. The findings offer insights relevant to geographers and policymakers navigating AI-driven changes in civil society during crisis times.
Health, Education
Civil society in crisis times: new geographies of governance in an era of AI
Mission-oriented innovation policies (MOIPs) have become key tools for tackling complex societal challenges, with over 260 missions initiated globally since the late 2010s. Their rapid growth has generated high expectations and concerns, underscoring the need for improved design and implementation approaches. An OECD report synthesizes insights from a year-long dialogue among policymakers and researchers, focusing on how to effectively frame missions, engage stakeholders and resources, leverage private investment, and achieve shared objectives. The report presents best practices and real-world examples to guide mission-oriented innovation efforts.
Education
Forging New Frontiers in Mission‑Oriented Innovation Policies
An analysis by AI start-up Oumi found that Google's AI Overviews are accurate about 85% of the time with Gemini 2 and 91% with the upgraded Gemini 3, based on 4,326 search tests. However, over half of these accurate responses lacked full source support, making verification difficult. Given Google's handling of over five trillion searches annually, this accuracy rate still results in tens of millions of inaccurate answers every hour. The findings highlight ongoing concerns about user trust and understanding of AI-generated information accuracy.
How Accurate Are Google’s A.I. Overviews?
The Middle East conflict involving Iran, the US, and Israel has caused a sharp supply shock in global oil markets, driving Brent crude prices above $100 a barrel and disrupting flows through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of global oil. This supply disruption is increasing energy costs, fueling inflation, and slowing global trade growth from a projected 2% to around 1.5% in 2026. Gulf economies like Qatar and Kuwait face steep hydrocarbon export declines, while more diversified countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE remain vulnerable. Elevated fuel costs and logistical bottlenecks are also impacting global shipping, aviation, and tourism, with Middle Eastern inbound tourism forecasted to drop 11–27% in 2026. The conflict’s effects extend beyond energy, threatening fertilizer and helium supplies vital for agriculture and high-tech industries, exacerbating inflation and economic volatility worldwide.
Latin America | Financial services
In what ways does the Middle East conflict affect global trade and growth?
The EU and China, as major global trading blocs, both face energy security challenges crucial for economic prosperity, relying heavily on trade. While the EU leads in renewable energy, it remains dependent on imports and struggles with an incomplete internal energy market. The EU's approach is shifting toward increased domestic investment and rebalancing external accounts. Despite tensions and imbalances—such as the EU's trade deficit with China and surpluses with the US—the focus should move from bilateral trade imbalances to fostering pragmatic trade relations grounded in open, rule-based systems. Managing technological competition and geopolitical divisions requires new, possibly multilateral but flexible, cooperation frameworks to sustain global trade and economic security.
Belarus, Belgium, Bolivia, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, France, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Taiwan, China, Venezuela | Financial services
It’s time for a more pragmatic EU-China trade relationship
Asia’s structural transformation is characterized by premature deindustrialization, where many economies in the region shift away from manufacturing too early, potentially hindering sustained productivity growth. Manufacturing has historically driven improvements in living standards in Asia, but the paper highlights that maintaining a strong manufacturing sector is linked to higher productivity. It emphasizes the need for context-specific industrial policies, noting that factors like finance, public investment, and labor market regulations influence sectoral employment differently across countries. Addressing these challenges is critical for continued economic development in Asia.
South Africa
Asia’s Structural Transformation: Patterns, Challenges, and New Stylized Facts
The Provincial Facilitation for Investment and Trade Index (ProFIT) measures economic governance affecting business development across provinces in the Lao PDR. Drawing on the third survey, it evaluates factors such as ease of starting a business, transparency, regulatory burden, informal charges, policy consistency, and provincial administration friendliness. The findings reveal overall improvements in the business environment due to streamlined registration processes. The publication also addresses gender equality issues, analyzing laws, institutional support, challenges faced by women entrepreneurs, and their impact on the private sector, offering policy recommendations to further enhance the business climate.
Algeria, Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Chad, Guinea, Latvia, Lebanon, Lesotho, Luxembourg, Malawi, Mali, Malta, Mongolia, Panama, Philippines, Portugal, Qatar
Provincial Facilitation for Investment and Trade Index: Measuring Economic Governance for Business Development in the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Third Edition)

Forum Spaces

© 2026 All rights reserved
Privacy Policy & Terms of Service