Insights

Modern capitalism faces three critical challenges: anthropogenic climate change, extreme inequality, and market dominance by a few mega-corporations. Climate change represents a global negative externality that national governments alone cannot solve, with international efforts to price carbon emissions repeatedly stalling. Extreme inequality, exacerbated by top executives’ soaring pay, threatens social cohesion and political stability, linking closely to persistent poverty. Market dominance by corporations like Meta, Apple, and Amazon reduces competition, innovation, consumer choice, and economic welfare, often leading to market failure. These "wicked monsters" are complex, ill-defined problems requiring collective, multidisciplinary solutions involving widespread stakeholder engagement.
Financial services, Health
The three “wicked monsters” of modern capitalism
The Iran war and potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz threaten not only global energy supplies but also a critical "fertiliser shock" impacting food security worldwide. Around a third of globally traded urea, essential for crop yields, passes through Hormuz due to the region's access to cheap natural gas and established production facilities in Gulf countries. Disruptions would delay or halt shipments of nitrogen fertilisers and liquefied natural gas, vital for fertiliser manufacturing. This would raise prices, reduce fertiliser availability, diminish crop yields, and escalate food prices, particularly affecting countries reliant on imports like India, Brazil, and parts of Africa. The crisis could exacerbate inflation and food insecurity, with no quick solution due to the long lead time for building new fertiliser plants.
Financial services
How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming
Singapore has outlined the foundations of its first national climate adaptation plan, targeting key risks such as extreme heat, flooding, rising sea levels, and threats to food and water security. The government will enhance heat resilience through expanded sensor networks and a new Heat Resilience Policy Office, improve flood drainage systems, and develop coastal defenses to combat sea level rise, with legal measures requiring coastal landowners to protect their areas. Community-led adaptation projects will be supported by broadening the SG Eco Fund. Experts emphasize the need to include nature-based solutions and vulnerable communities in planning, alongside developing measurable indicators to track adaptation effectiveness. The full plan will be released in 2024, with 2026 designated as Singapore’s Year of Climate Adaptation.
Nigeria, Philippines, Singapore
Singapore outlines first national climate adaptation plan
Effective civilian harm mitigation requires militaries and armed actors to integrate gender perspectives into all stages of operations. Women, men, girls, and boys experience conflict differently, and intersecting identities such as disability or minority status can further shape vulnerabilities. Incorporating gender considerations systematically—from planning and training to monitoring and accountability—improves protection for all civilians and strengthens adherence to international humanitarian law. Embedding gender-responsive approaches in doctrine, operational planning, and community engagement enhances both civilian protection and operational effectiveness.
Improving civilian protection by incorporating gender into civilian harm mitigation tools and processes
Southeast Asia's blue economy programmes in the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam remain unaffected despite reported UK climate aid budget cuts. The UK's £500 million Blue Planet Fund, supporting marine protection and blue carbon initiatives, continues its projects with domestic funding and diversified financing stepping up where UK aid declines. In the Philippines, government ownership and partnerships drive blue carbon efforts, while Indonesia and Vietnam receive ongoing support through the Climate and Ocean Adaptation and Sustainable Transition (COAST) programme. These efforts bolster coastal resilience, fisheries, and sustainable blue economies vital to millions dependent on ocean-based livelihoods.
Nigeria, Philippines, Viet Nam
Southeast Asia’s blue economy programmes unaffected by reported UK climate aid cuts, say project leads
Water scarcity and degradation threaten Asia and the Pacific's food security, despite the region feeding over 4 billion people using limited freshwater and arable land. Intensive agriculture, climate change, and pollution have stressed river systems, degrading soils and reducing productivity. Transformative approaches are needed, including shifting from maximizing yields to optimizing water-efficient, diversified farming, coordinating government policies across sectors, investing in long-term integrated river basin management, and promoting inclusive water governance with active participation of women. Valuing water as natural capital and restoring ecosystems are essential to sustain agriculture, nutrition, and health in the region.
Bangladesh | Health
Clean and Healthy Rivers are the Key to Transformation of Asia’s Food Systems
Global uncertainty has risen above its historic average, reaching 102.3 points on the IESE Uncertainty Index, the highest since the announcement of global trade tariffs in 2025. Elevated risks persist in Iran, South Africa, China, and South Korea, with structural economic vulnerabilities and political instability contributing to heightened volatility. South Africa faces high unemployment and fiscal deficits, China contends with volatile bonds and slowing growth, and South Korea endures ongoing political tension. Despite this, the current index level remains below peaks seen during past crises. Forward-looking indicators suggest potential stabilization if tensions in Iran and other risk areas do not escalate further, though future policy moves by the U.S. remain uncertain.
Algeria, Angola, Azerbaijan, Barbados, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Chad, Egypt, El Salvador, Estonia, Eswatini, Georgia, Ghana, Guinea, Haiti, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Kenya, Kuwait, Lesotho, Luxembourg, Mali, Moldova, Namibia, Poland, Serbia, Seychelles, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, China, Tunisia, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, Venezuela, Yemen, Zambia, Zimbabwe
Global uncertainty crosses its historic average amid Middle East tensions
The US is intensifying efforts to secure critical minerals vital for advanced technologies by reducing reliance on China, which dominates 70% of key strategic mineral markets. Initiatives like the February 2024 critical minerals ministerial, Project Vault, and proposed trading blocs aim to build alternative supply chains with a security focus. However, these interventions primarily emphasize exclusion of China and state coordination over market mechanisms. For Global South producers, especially in Africa, this approach risks undermining regional cooperation and ambitions to add value by processing and manufacturing locally, as US bilateral deals may complicate multilateral regional strategies. Experts remain skeptical about the impact of US policies on altering entrenched supply chain dynamics favoring China.
Democratic Republic of the Congo, Eswatini, Ghana, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe | Financial services
What does the US pursuit of critical minerals mean for the Global South?
Artificial intelligence is transforming enterprise software by pressuring SaaS profit margins, reducing barriers to market entry, and altering pricing models. These changes signal a pivotal shift in the enterprise software industry, driven by AI's growing influence on how software is developed, sold, and valued.
From Hype to Impact: AI Reshapes Enterprise Software
A renewable-powered world would lessen the global economic impact of conflicts like the Iran crisis, as energy systems would rely primarily on domestically generated electricity from wind, solar, and other low-carbon sources rather than fossil fuels concentrated in volatile regions. Disruptions at strategic oil chokepoints such as the strait of Hormuz would have a reduced effect on global markets and inflation, with stable electricity supplies sustaining households and transport. However, geopolitics would shift towards competition over critical minerals essential for renewable technologies, like lithium and rare earth elements, which are more geographically dispersed and less centralized than oil reserves, potentially leading to new but less acute supply vulnerabilities.
Latin America | Financial services
How would the Iran crisis play out in a world powered by renewables not fossil fuels?
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran threatens global energy supplies and disrupts vital trade routes, impacting over 30,000 ships that transport 11% of global seaborne trade, including 34% of oil and 19% of natural gas exports. The Gulf region, a major hub for container shipping, faces stranded vessels and disrupted supply chains. This jeopardizes food security, especially in Gulf states heavily reliant on imports, as fertilizer exports and perishable goods face shortages and spoilage risks. Rising fuel and fertilizer costs will increase agricultural production expenses, potentially raising global consumer prices. Shipping surcharges and rerouting around Africa may increase freight costs, further pressuring inflation worldwide.
Yemen
Strait of Hormuz: Gulf states’ food security is at immediate risk but wider shortages could push up consumer prices globally
Nonprofits face increasing challenges due to rising demand, shrinking funding, and complex interconnected social issues like hunger and homelessness, which exceed the capacity of individual organizations. Structural incentives often foster competition rather than collaboration, leading to service duplication and unmet needs. The Food Security Collaborative in Contra Costa County, California, exemplifies an "Impact Collaborative" model where multiple nonprofits align efforts, integrate data, share resources, and coordinate services while maintaining their autonomy. This approach offers a replicable blueprint for amplifying impact across shared social challenges.
Health
The Impact Collaborative
Keir Starmer's decision to avoid military action in the Middle East aligns with his foreign policy of progressive realism, emphasizing peace, respect for national self-determination, and gradual reform over regime change. Unlike Tony Blair's interventionist approach in Iraq, Starmer prioritizes avoiding chaos from external force. While Trump’s realism seeks US military dominance and unilateral regime change, the UK favors a balanced realism that integrates progressive values and cautious consequences assessment. This approach preserves international law and promotes stability, contrasting sharply with the Trump administration’s aggressive foreign policy stance.
Starmer’s Iran approach may anger Trump, but it fits with his foreign policy philosophy
Globalization disrupts traditional political authority at local, regional, national, and international levels, challenging established legitimacy. This creates complex demands for regulation, security, rights protection, and autonomy across multiple political and geographic spaces. The book "Unsettled Legitimacy," edited by Steven Bernstein and William D. Coleman, examines these tensions and explores the conditions under which individuals and communities accept globalized decision-making. It offers a nuanced analysis of legitimacy and autonomy, avoiding simplistic positions on global governance, democracy, or economic integration.
Latin America | Health
Unsettled Legitimacy
Winston Churchill’s approach to conflict with Iran would likely combine strategic caution, diplomatic engagement, and firmness rather than impulsive confrontation. He valued Anglo-American unity and saw war and diplomacy as intertwined, emphasizing strength to deter aggression while maintaining dialogue with adversaries. Historically, Churchill supported covert action against Iran’s leader in 1953, reflecting his willingness to use force when Western interests were at stake, but he was also aware of the unpredictable consequences of war. Churchill would likely view Iran through the lens of ideological rivalry but prefer negotiation backed by robust deterrence over direct military conflict.
What would Winston Churchill make of war with Iran?
Artificial Intelligence and Government, edited by Stephen Kwamena Aikins and Tamara Dimitrijevska-Markoski, explores how AI is transforming public institutions globally. The book addresses AI applications in areas like climate resilience, urban planning, justice, and service delivery, highlighting opportunities to improve policy outcomes and citizen engagement through technologies such as machine learning and data analytics. It also tackles ethical, legal, and societal issues including algorithmic bias, accountability, privacy, and the need for democratic oversight. Through case studies and expert analyses, it offers practical guidance on AI adoption, challenges, and strategies, aiming to foster fairer, more transparent, and innovative governance.
Education
Artificial Intelligence and Government
The Middle East's dominant role in global energy stems from the Arabian tectonic plate, which hosts over half the world's proven oil reserves and 40% of natural gas, including a quarter of all giant and supergiant fields. This concentration underpins economies and global supply, but also heightens geopolitical risks, notably around the Strait of Hormuz. A key example is the shared South Pars/North Dome gas field, the world's largest, split between Iran and Qatar. Qatar's North Dome powers it as the leading LNG exporter, supplying about 20% of global LNG, while Iran's South Pars production is significant but smaller. These intertwined geological and political factors shape Middle East conflicts and global energy market volatility.
Bahrain, Egypt, Ghana, India, Kazakhstan, Lebanon, Norway, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen
How one massive gas field shapes the global stakes of conflict in the Middle East
Recent advances in AI coding agents are rapidly transforming social science research. Researchers have used AI to quickly develop sophisticated analytical tools, generate comprehensive reports with data visualizations and replicable analyses, and build complex study pipelines across multiple languages and models. These developments suggest that AI will substantially change academic practices, enabling more efficient data processing and analysis, and potentially reshaping how research is conducted and integrated into academia.
Education
The train has left the station: Agentic AI and the future of social science research
Falling birth rates worldwide result primarily from women choosing to have fewer children, influenced by social and economic factors. This shift has raised concerns about future labor shortages and the strain on working-age populations to support aging societies. While government incentives like tax breaks, childcare support, and baby bonuses can ease child-rearing, they only modestly affect birth rates. Policies restricting contraceptives or abortion access harm women's health without effectively raising fertility. More impactful are efforts to create positive social environments, such as secure housing and education, encouraging people to feel optimistic about bringing children into the world.
Emily Jackson: “We’ve gone from thinking the world is massively overpopulated to worrying about falling birth rates”
EU enlargement has regained strategic priority due to geopolitical shifts, notably Russia’s war in Ukraine, transforming it into a tool for reinforcing Europe’s stability and democracy. Public support is strong, especially among youth, but contingent on democratic reforms and gradual integration. Ukraine, Moldova, and Western Balkan countries’ accession depends on credible conditionality linked to tangible reforms and benefits, with safeguards against democratic backsliding. Enlargement requires internal EU reforms to maintain cohesion amid new members. The UK’s shifting public opinion on rejoining the EU also complicates enlargement dynamics, suggesting a need to rethink integration processes.
Latin America
The politics of belonging – why enlargement is now a strategic priority for the EU

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