Insights

The conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint for about 20% of the world's oil, is disrupting energy flows and causing a surge in oil prices due to both real supply risks and market uncertainty. This disruption affects global supply chains broadly, as energy underpins manufacturing, transport, and agriculture worldwide. The Gulf region's instability impacts not only energy but also major logistics hubs, raising concerns about global trade reliability. The crisis exposes weaknesses in supply chains optimized solely for efficiency, highlighting the need for diversification, alternative energy routes, strategic reserves, and investment in renewable energy to enhance resilience. Geopolitical tensions also risk expanding informal and illegal supply chains, potentially increasing price volatility, shortages, and long-term costs for consumers.
Bahrain, Ethiopia, Ghana, Indonesia, Japan, Jordan, Kyrgyz Republic, Malaysia, Oman, Pakistan, Senegal, Singapore, Taiwan, China, Tanzania, Tunisia, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, Yemen | Financial services
The oil price surge is just one symptom of a supply chain network that is not fit for this age of global tensions
Those born before the mid-1990s, the last analog generation, developed cognitive skills shaped by tangible challenges and minimal digital mediation, fostering executive functions through effortful attention and real-world experiences. This contrasts with younger generations growing up immersed in digital environments dominated by algorithms prioritizing engagement and profit over human flourishing. Current innovation largely prioritizes return on investment, often neglecting social and ecological well-being. Embracing prosocial AI—economically viable, socially beneficial, ecologically regenerative, and developmentally enhancing—offers a path to align technology with human values. The analog generation's unique insights and responsibilities position them to guide AI development toward supporting human potential and planetary health.
Education
How the Last Analog Generation Can Shape AI
Fraunhofer researchers are developing an AI-supported learning management system for the Bundeswehr to enhance soldiers' training and teaching quality. The system integrates AI functionalities such as a secure, quality-controlled chatbot, a competence assessment app (KoApp) that tracks learning progress, personalized AI-generated learning pathways, and a learning recommendation system. Initial tests found the chatbot especially useful for quickly accessing regulations, and the adaptive AI tools increased learning enjoyment and effectiveness. The project aims to support instructors and promote lifelong learning without replacing human guidance.
Education
Fraunhofer is Developing an AI-Supported Learning Management System for the Bundeswehr
The Assessing and Imagining the Impact of Generative AI on Science Symposium, held March 3-5 at Cornell, brings together experts from academia and industry to examine how generative AI is transforming scientific research. Panels will explore current uses, responsible governance, equity and access to AI tools, impacts on collaboration, and implications for policy, funding, science communication, and public trust. The symposium aims to move beyond anecdotal evidence to systematically assess the benefits and challenges of generative AI in scientific discovery and guide its future use.
Education
Experts to examine the use of generative AI in science
Climate change in Uganda disproportionately impacts women and girls by exacerbating existing inequalities related to displacement, food insecurity, health risks, and unpaid care burdens. Despite national policies like the 2015 National Climate Change Policy and the 2021 Climate Change Act recognizing gender-differentiated impacts, implementation gaps remain due to inadequate funding, institutional delays, and insufficiently targeted measures. Women face barriers such as limited land ownership and increased safety risks, yet they play a central role in climate resilience. Empowering women through inclusive leadership and tailored support is essential for effective adaptation and sustainable development in Uganda.
Nigeria
Why Women Must Be at the Heart of Uganda’s Climate Change Agenda
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly acting as conversational agents that ask questions to guide decision-making, differing significantly from human executives in their question types. Research comparing over 1,600 executives with 13 leading models reveals that AI tends to overuse interpretive questions while underusing productive and subjective ones, potentially creating blind spots and skewing outcomes. These variations also differ widely across AI systems, making tool selection critical. Managers should use AI-generated questions as prompts for deeper reflection, actively seek missing perspectives, especially on execution and stakeholder interests, compare outputs from different models, and maintain final decision-making authority.
The Risks of Letting AI Direct Conversations
The AI community has actively engaged in activism targeting employers, peers, and governments to influence AI’s societal and ethical impacts, achieving notable successes over the past six years. These achievements rely on a shared culture and strong bargaining power due to high demand for scarce AI talent. Future political organizing and activism depend on maintaining these factors, highlighting the need for ongoing attention to community cohesion and labor dynamics in AI activism.
Education
Activism by the AI Community: Analysing Recent Achievements and Future Prospects
Asia Pacific insurers increasingly recognize that climate-driven extreme weather is evolving from an underwriting challenge into a systemic financial threat. While many feel individually prepared for rising physical risks, the sector as a whole is considered underprepared, with concerns about the insurability of vulnerable infrastructure. The region exhibits a significant gap in integrating climate risks into risk management compared to Europe, reflecting a "readiness paradox." Governance on climate metrics remains weak, limiting accountability. Despite challenges, insurers see growth opportunities in climate-risk advisory services, parametric insurance, and nature-based resilience. Rising insured losses underscore the urgency, particularly in Asia's highly exposed urban and coastal areas.
Financial services
Asia Pacific insurers warn climate shocks are becoming a systemic financial threat
Critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and rare earths are central to US-China economic and geopolitical rivalry, with the competition unfolding primarily in Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America where these resources are located. Control over midstream processing and refining—rather than ownership of the minerals themselves—is crucial, as China dominates these capital-intensive, technologically complex stages, creating strategic supply chain chokepoints. The US and its allies focus on secure, transparent supply chains and regulatory standards, while China pursues integrated, state-backed infrastructure and processing projects. Resource-rich countries in the Global South are leveraging this rivalry to advance their own industrialization and move beyond raw material supply towards value-added processing and strategic partnerships.
Bolivia | Financial services
The new critical minerals race: why the US-China rivalry will be decided in the global south
Donald Trump claims NATO members underinvest in defense by free-riding on others, particularly the US. However, research examining post-Cold War NATO entrants finds no evidence that joining leads to reduced defense spending as a share of GDP. Comparing new members with similar non-members facing Russian threats shows that countries do not cut spending after accession or during the membership preparatory phase. This suggests free-riding by new NATO members is minimal, possibly constrained by alliance rules and shared security concerns, although shifts within defense budgets and impacts on existing members remain areas for further study.
Is Donald Trump right about free-riding in NATO?
Civil society spaces are increasingly constrained in Europe, with repression of civil society organizations (CSOs) gradually rising since 2010. Both governments and right-wing populist parties challenge the political neutrality and transparency of CSOs, often using these concerns to delegitimize criticism and restrict their influence. Notably, Hungary’s 2025 restrictive bill targets CSOs under claims of threatening national sovereignty. In Germany, right-wing parties intensify scrutiny through parliamentary inquiries, while similar accusations arise at the EU level concerning CSO funding and lobbying. These pressures create a "chilling effect," limiting CSOs' political activities. Protecting the democratic role of civil society requires early resistance to such delegitimization, legal reforms, and open dialogue among all democratic actors.
Pressure on civil society spaces
Judges consulting ChatGPT for statutory interpretation reveals a fundamental problem: large language models (LLMs) generate text based on predicting token sequences without truly understanding semantic meaning. This issue is not due to immature technology but reflects a crucial mismatch—treating interpretation as empirical recovery of fixed historical meaning. Originalism's reliance on historical usage patterns leads naturally to computational methods that simulate meaning but discard true semantic content. As AI-generated content saturates training data, interpretive accuracy degrades, threatening legal claims vital to life and liberty. Thus, computational legal interpretation fails because it simulates rather than genuinely interprets law.
The Dead Law Theory: The Perils of Simulated Interpretation
Europe faces heightened geopolitical risks due to strategic uncertainty and shifting global dynamics, including the second Trump administration's rapprochement with Russia that challenges transatlantic security. This moment accelerates debates on defense readiness, energy security, and economic resilience. Europe's ability to support Ukraine, reform its defense industry cooperation, diversify energy sources, and adapt trade policies is critical. The report highlights the need for more agile EU enlargement processes and expanded partnerships beyond the Global North. Ultimately, Europe's future depends on converting internal strengths into effective geopolitical agency amid systemic rivalry and decoupling.
Moment of Truth for Europe
Global demand for plastics is projected to more than double by 2050, driven largely by fossil fuel and petrochemical industries expanding production of plastic packaging, especially for ready meals. Research reveals that plastic containers release harmful microplastics and chemical additives into food, with heating significantly increasing contamination risks. Many plastic-related chemicals remain unassessed for safety despite links to cancer, infertility, and other health issues. Greenpeace urges governments to implement a strong United Nations Global Plastics Treaty to regulate plastic production and protect human health amid growing plastic pollution concerns.
Global plastic demands could more than double by 2050 despite harm evidence: study
Asset owners in Asia-Pacific are leading global sustainable investing, with 79% integrating sustainability factors, surpassing Europe (74%) and North America (71%), driven by heightened climate concerns and supportive policies. Key factors include large clean energy investments, government strategies like Japan’s Green Transformation, and new disclosure regulations in financial hubs. Asia also leads in green bond issuance, with $180 billion issued in 2025. Globally, 85% of asset owners express strong climate risk concern, and 80% incorporate sustainability in strategic asset allocation. Financial performance and risk management motivate sustainable investing, while regulatory complexities and greenwashing fears remain challenges.
Asia leads global shift toward sustainable investing, survey finds
Leadership today faces challenges from global fragmentation, demographic shifts, and technological changes, especially with AI’s unchecked development. Leaders must stay grounded by leading with their core values, communicating with empathy, building inclusive communities, and remaining humble. Seeking help and guidance is vital, as is accepting that not all desires can be fulfilled simultaneously. Creating a trusted "risk manager"—a person or inner voice to deliberate decisions—can prevent hasty actions. These practices foster resilience and help navigate polarization toward a kinder, more connected world.
Financial services, Health
10 life lessons for leading in a polarized world
Agricultural mechanization in Asia enhances crop yields, labor productivity, household income, and dietary diversity, addressing labor shortages and climate challenges. However, benefits often favor better-resourced farmers unless machinery services are accessible and support is targeted. Gender disparities persist, limiting women's access to mechanization and digital tools, impacting wages and labor participation. Inclusive, service-oriented, climate-smart policies combined with gender-sensitive interventions, finance access, training, and digital infrastructure are essential to ensure equitable benefits across communities.
Transforming Smallholder Agriculture Through Mechanization in Asia: Volume 2: Impacts and Policy Options
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death is prompting a likely transformation of Iran’s regime, but power remains with the 13-member National Security Council, dominated by military and political insiders like Ali Larijani and Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf. The interim three-person leadership committee holds nominal authority, but the security council effectively governs. Amid ongoing conflict with the U.S. and Israel, Iran is expected to gradually ease hostility, potentially establishing diplomatic ties with the U.S. and shifting its stance on Israel to resemble Gulf states' positions. Economic constraints and pragmatism among Iran’s military and political leaders suggest a strategic pivot away from prolonged conflict, though this would not equate to democratic reform or fulfill democratic activists’ goals.
Iran’s Likeliest Near Future
Striking a visible regime like Iran may seem to address immediate threats, but it fails to neutralize the underlying dangers. Instead, such actions create a power vacuum, transforming the threat into a decentralized, elusive, and unaccountable force that is difficult to monitor, negotiate with, or control. This narrow approach to threat perception overlooks the complexities of post-regime dynamics and can exacerbate instability rather than resolve it.
The Perils of a Power Vacuum in Iran
The chapter analyzes three historical case studies—genetic modification to genome editing, controversies over climate science, and artificial intelligence in social media—to understand how public trust in science, technology, and innovation (STI) is gained, maintained, or lost. Trust derives from intuitive familiarity and evidenced societal benefits but can be eroded by scientific fraud, dismissal of public concerns, and populist rejection of science. Building and sustaining trust requires transparency, public engagement, risk management, responsible communication, and strong regulation, involving coordinated efforts from scientists, institutions, funders, regulators, and governance processes to ensure ethical and socially sustainable STI.
Education, Health
The Conditions for Trust in Science, Technology and Innovation

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