Insights

Trump's new international trade tariffs, the highest in a century, are set to significantly impact American consumers, with JP Morgan predicting that 60% of the tariff costs will be passed on directly. Medium-sized businesses are particularly vulnerable, likely facing higher production costs and delayed investments. This situation poses inflationary and recessionary risks, potentially triggering a downturn that affects global economies, especially those exporting to the US. Additionally, uncertainties in demand could lead to renewed supply chain disruptions. The sustainability of this protectionist approach remains in question, with potential political backlash from businesses and consumers looming.
Trump’s tariffs have finally kicked in, so what happens next?
India's pathway to achieving net-zero emissions by 2070 necessitates a green transition that is low-carbon, inclusive, and equitable, particularly affecting regions reliant on coal and carbon-intensive industries. Financing this "just transition" requires aligning policies and capital flows with socioeconomic needs, promoting social equity alongside decarbonization efforts. Key measures include skill development and support for affected communities, with an emphasis on integrating diverse financial instruments like sovereign green bonds and concessional loans. Effective implementation hinges on enhanced institutional coordination, targeted training, and robust regulatory frameworks to foster a sustainable and inclusive economic future.
India, Indonesia | Financial services
How to build India's just transition ecosystem and finance an inclusive future
Centenarians exhibit a remarkable ability to avoid chronic diseases, significantly contributing to their extended lifespans. Research shows that individuals who reach 100 years old experience a lower incidence of major diseases, such as cardiovascular conditions, and develop these diseases more slowly than their shorter-lived peers. In two studies involving over 400,000 participants, findings indicated that centenarians not only delay the onset of diseases but also tend to have milder health issues affecting fewer organ systems. Their superior health resilience is linked to lower overall rates of serious conditions, crucial for their longevity.
The key to a centenarian’s long life may be their superhuman ability to avoid disease – new research
The energy demands of AI technology are escalating, raising sustainability concerns. To address this issue, harnessing technological convergence can transform AI from an energy burden into a greener solution. Advances in AI can optimize smart grid management, enhancing the reliability of energy distribution and integrating renewable sources effectively. Additionally, AI accelerates breakthroughs in materials science for clean energy applications and supports carbon capture initiatives through real-time monitoring. By merging AI with innovative industrial technologies, the energy consumption associated with AI can be minimized, ensuring its growth is sustainable and beneficial for the planet.
Why we must harness technological convergence for a greener AI energy future
Ultra-fast delivery is rapidly growing in urban areas but is outpacing existing infrastructure, raising concerns about sustainability, congestion, and emissions. Cities need standardized frameworks for shared investment and data management to address these challenges. Regulations are being implemented, such as low-emission zones and restrictions on polluting vehicles, but often result in fragmentation. Successful models, like Amsterdam's zero-emission zones, highlight the importance of clear rules. Collaboration between cities and delivery companies, along with enhanced data sharing, is essential for creating cleaner, more efficient urban logistics systems.
Sweden, United Arab Emirates | Financial services, Health, Education, ICT
What will it take to make ultra-fast delivery work for cities?
Radical right-wing populist parties are gaining significant traction in various democracies. In the 2024 UK general election, Reform secured 14% of the vote, a major increase from 2% in 2019. Similar trends are evident in Italy, France, and the Netherlands, with parties like Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy and Marine Le Pen's National Rally rising in power. The 2024 Chapel Hill expert survey indicates radical right parties are now the most numerous, averaging 11% of votes and 17% of legislative seats. These parties typically favor concentrated executive power, threatening the separation of powers and democratic institutions.
Two charts that lay bare the threat posed by radical right parties to western democracies
Natural disasters resulted in global economic losses of $162 billion in the first half of 2025, with insured losses totaling $100 billion, primarily in the US. The US recorded its costliest first half on record, accounting for $126 billion, driven largely by wildfires and severe storms. The proportion of uninsured losses dropped to a record low of 38%, highlighting improvements in the US insurance market. However, significant protection gaps remain in low-income countries. Experts emphasize the necessity for enhanced insurance measures and risk mitigation strategies globally, particularly in regions vulnerable to climate change impacts.
Financial services, ICT, Health, Education
Natural disasters have cost us $162 billion this year. Insurance covered most of it.
Trump's tariffs, initiated on "liberation day," are projected to reduce global CO2 emissions by just 0.3-0.4% in 2025, equating to 110-150 million tonnes. A slightly larger reduction of 0.5-0.8% is anticipated for 2026 but remains modest. Despite temporary pauses and tariff deals with various countries, uncertainty persists around tariff levels, adversely affecting trade and investments. Analysts indicate that while short-term emissions may decline due to slowed consumption from economic impacts, long-term effects could hinder clean technology and climate action, ultimately leading to increased emissions.
Analysis: Trump’s tariffs could cut just 0.3% from global CO2 emissions in 2025
The Arctic, once a model of international cooperation, now faces significant geopolitical challenges following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This conflict has led to increased militarization and the breakdown of constructive dialogue between the Western ‘Arctic seven’ states and Russia, with global implications that include potential military escalation and halted scientific collaboration. The chapter explores the factors undermining West–Russia cooperation in security, science, and environmental matters and advocates for the use of Track II dialogue to foster communication and trust-building initiatives. Historical precedents are cited to illustrate possibilities for cooperation even amid geopolitical tensions.
A Mediator’s Perspective: Reflecting on the Obstacles and Opportunities for Renewing Dialogue on the Arctic
China's Guidelines for Ecological and Environmental Protection in Foreign Investment markedly elevate corporate environmental responsibilities abroad, mandating transparency and community engagement. However, they lack enforcement mechanisms, accountability, and clear incentives, leading to superficial compliance among Chinese companies. Despite international ESG pressures, companies often rely on weak local regulations, risking environmental negligence. The guidelines symbolize China's commitment to responsible investment but require stronger oversight and operational tools to be effective. Enhancing transparency through mandatory ESG reporting could reinforce compliance and bolster China's reputation in promoting sustainable overseas investments.
Moving ‘green’ Belt and Road from words to action
Asia can enhance regional health security by focusing on four key areas: establishing contact tracing networks for rapid outbreak detection, creating coordinated health communications to combat misinformation, implementing regional telemedicine platforms for continuous healthcare access, and developing region-wide public health funds to ensure equitable access to vaccines and treatments. These initiatives promote collaboration, improve response to health emergencies, and bolster overall resilience against future pandemics, while highlighting the importance of shared investments in surveillance and technology across the region.
Africa, ASEAN, Latin America | Financial services, Health
Four Ways Asia Can Strengthen Regional Health Security Before the Next Pandemic
Deepfakes pose significant risks, extending beyond disinformation to include financial fraud and geopolitical manipulation. Recent incidents, such as scammers in Hong Kong impersonating executives via real-time deepfakes, highlight the urgent need for comprehensive countermeasures. Researchers and companies are developing detection tools, including digital watermarking and cryptographic metadata, alongside public education efforts to combat these threats. Despite challenges like public distrust in fact-checking, a hybrid approach combining technology and education is essential for developing resilience against deepfakes.
The risks of deepfakes are evolving beyond disinformation
Riots are often sparked by significant incidents that embody longstanding grievances within communities rather than arbitrary triggers. Factors leading to riots include collective grievances linked to deprivation, the organized ability of individuals to act, and a shared social identity that distinguishes an in-group from an out-group. Recent studies indicate that the 2024 anti-immigrant riots involved participants who intended violence, contrasting with past events where peaceful protests escalated due to police actions. Additionally, riots in one location can influence the likelihood of similar unrest elsewhere, as potential participants gauge local sentiments and beliefs about shared grievances.
Why do people riot?
Technology has played a significant role in the rise of overtourism, transforming travel through the internet and social media, which blur the lines between locals and tourists and elevate previously little-known destinations. While historical transportation advancements drove mass tourism, current effects are more subtle, with digital nomadism and online platforms like Airbnb reshaping travel habits. AI may offer solutions, such as creating personalized travel experiences and managing tourist flow, but its overall impact on tourism remains uncertain. Ultimately, factors like climate change and economic pressures may weigh heavier on future travel patterns than technology alone.
Education
Technology has fuelled overtourism – now it could also help to stem the tide
The UK government plans to prohibit public sector organizations from paying ransoms to cyber criminals to deter ransomware attacks and protect critical services. Compliance will be enforced through audits and penalties, while private firms must notify authorities of ransom payment intentions. Meanwhile, a cyberattack on Saint Paul, USA, prompted a state of emergency declaration and the involvement of the Minnesota National Guard for recovery efforts. Additional cybersecurity developments include pro-Ukrainian hackers targeting Russia's Aeroflot, heightened corporate security measures in the US, and ongoing investigations into a pro-Russian hacking group in Europe.
Financial services, Education, ICT
UK to ban ransom payments to cyber criminals, and other cybersecurity news
Turkey plays a crucial role in the evolving European security landscape following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. As both a partner and competitor to the EU, Turkey seeks to integrate into the European security architecture through enhanced defense cooperation while maintaining its longstanding commitment to Ukraine. Despite its significant defense capabilities and growing military exports, concerns over Turkey's democratic backsliding complicate its EU accession prospects. The current geopolitical context, influenced by the Trump administration, could foster closer ties between Ankara and Brussels, although strategic ambiguity remains in Turkey's approach to Russia and Western sanctions.
Sweden, Türkiye
Alignment of Necessity
The investment opportunity in climate adaptation solutions is projected to grow from $2 trillion today to $9 trillion by 2050, driven by escalating risks from climate change. Private investors play a crucial role in this sector, which is often overlooked due to a focus on decarbonization. A partnership analysis identified over 1,400 potential solutions, narrowing them to 21 critical products. The estimated annual revenue for these solutions could increase from $1 trillion to $4 trillion by 2050, spurred by climate-induced demand. Key areas for investment include weather intelligence and wind-resistant building materials, which are expected to see significant growth.
Sizing the $9 trillion climate adaptation investment opportunity
Ukraine's enhanced drone capabilities, particularly its use of long-range one-way attack (OWA) drones, have significantly shifted the bargaining power in its conflict with Russia. By launching successful strikes on key Russian infrastructure, including oil facilities, Ukraine has inflicted substantial economic damage, estimated at over $700 million. This has prompted Russia to reposition its air defenses and has pressured Moscow amid internal public discontent. Consequently, Ukrainian President Zelensky now possesses a stronger negotiating position with Vladimir Putin, as the drone campaign challenges traditional military defense strategies and highlights the vulnerabilities of Russian assets.
Ukraine’s drone air war has given Zelensky additional bargaining power with Putin – new research
Mastering circular economy models and artificial intelligence (AI) by 2030 is essential for business competitiveness. Traditional linear practices are becoming unsustainable; companies must adopt circular practices to avoid high costs, declining revenues, and customer distrust. Circularity reduces raw material risk and improves profitability through methods like repair and product-as-a-service models. AI is pivotal in optimizing supply chains, enhancing product lifecycles, and managing complex circular ecosystems. Those leveraging both circularity and AI will outperform competitors, as they can efficiently adapt to market changes and meet increasing expectations from regulators, customers, and investors.
ICT, Education
Why you must master the circular economy and AI by 2030 to stay competitive
Global financial markets show resilience at the mid-year mark, with M&A activity reaching a peak of $2.6 trillion, a 28% increase in value despite fewer deals. The US dominates the M&A landscape, accounting for over 50% of global activity. Securities lending revenues have also surged by 53% year-over-year, reflecting strong investor confidence amid economic uncertainties. Concurrently, the White House plans an executive order to address political discrimination in banking services. In other news, significant challenges persist for large accounting firms in adopting AI, and European pharmaceuticals face declines due to tariff threats.
United Arab Emirates | Financial services
Global market resilience at the mid-year mark, and other finance news to know

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