Case Study Details - Global Foresight Network - Geographic report: East African Community

1.Situation:

This case study originated from a report on the development future of the East African Community (EAC), one of eight regional economic communities (RECs) recognized by the African Union. The EAC consists of eight members situated in East and Central Africa: Burundi, DR Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda. The report was initialised by the African Futures & Innovation team as part of its ongoing update of the development prospects of individual African countries. We work in support of the African Union Development Agency - New Partnership for Africa’s Development (AUDA-NEPAD) which is mandated to implement and track progress with the African Union’s Agenda 2063 long-term development plan.

2.Complictaion

EAC member states are at differing points in their development trajectory, and each requires unique interventions to spur economic and societal growth and development.

3.Solution

The report discusses the region's demographics, economy, and informal sector with a forecast horizon to 2043, starting with a Current Path or business-as-usual forecast. The analysis then showcases the development potential of the REC in eight sectoral scenarios, highlighting the importance of governance and infrastructure improvements for economic and social development while also addressing challenges such as energy demand and poverty, suggesting that strategic initiatives across all sectors could greatly benefit the region's prosperity and stability. It emphasizes the potential impacts of these scenarios on GDP, GDP per capita, life expectancy, education, industrialization, poverty reduction, inequality and carbon emission. The final section of the report presents the combined impact of the eight sectoral scenarios, comparing the combined sectoral scenario with the Current Path, and the sectoral scenarios' impact with one another. The purpose of AFI-ISS is to support and inform a futures perspective in support of Agenda 2063, primarily by working with African governments, regional organizations, and policymakers engaged in Africa’s development.

Impact / Outcome

1. After the report was published on the African Futures and Innovation website, the EAC Secretariat contacted AFI-ISS, requesting engagement and presentation of the results. 2. Following two virtual consultations with the Secretariat to discuss the report, its methodology and conclusions, an in-person workshop was held in early December 2024 for ISS staff to receive input and comment to update the online report. 3. The report is currently, as of March 2025, being reviewed and restructured to bring it in line with the requirements set out by the Secretariat so it can be adopted and distributed to the REC's partner states. 4. Progress with the EAC is still unfolding but we are encouraged by the initial engagements. 5. We are currently engaged in providing an updated version for the EAC’s internal use.