Situation: (Context) Delft University of Technology (TU Delft) is a large public technical university operating in an increasingly volatile strategic environment. Over the past decade, the university has benefited from relatively stable conditions: predictable public funding, strong international collaboration, steady inflow of students and talent, and reliable digital and physical infrastructures. At the same time, the university functions as a complex adaptive system, characterised by distributed decision-making, high professional autonomy, and loosely coupled faculties and services. Strategy development traditionally relied on medium-term planning cycles and incremental adjustments, assuming continuity in many of these external conditions. In response to growing uncertainty after the COVID-19 crisis, the Executive Board decided to strengthen the university’s anticipatory capacity by developing a dedicated strategic foresight function within the Strategy Development directorate. Rather than producing one-off scenario reports, the ambition was to embed foresight structurally into strategy and governance processes across the organisation. 

Complication: (Why was there a need for foresight intervention?) TU Delft increasingly faced developments that could not be adequately addressed through conventional planning or risk management approaches. Geopolitical tensions, pressures on academic autonomy, digital and cyber risks, climate impacts on campus infrastructure, and shifting societal trust in knowledge all affected the university’s long-term viability. Many strategic plans implicitly assumed stability in these external conditions, without making those assumptions explicit or testing their robustness. Moreover, internal dynamics made it difficult to address these issues openly. Cognitive biases, institutional routines, and a tendency to focus on short-term operational concerns limited the organisation’s ability to reflect on disruptive but plausible futures. This created a growing gap between formal strategies and the underlying vulnerabilities of the institution. 

Solution: (Foresight methodology applied) To address this, TU Delft developed the Delft Strategic Foresight Approach (DSFA), a structured methodology designed to test strategic assumptions under conditions of deep uncertainty. The approach combines seven guiding principles with five operational levels, ranging from diagnosing uncertainty to developing strategic options. Central to the methodology is the use of external critical dependencies as an analytical lens and the application of scenario-based stress tests to existing strategies. The DSFA was developed through a series of “Foresight Field Labs” with faculties and professional services. These sessions surfaced hidden assumptions, explored plausible disruptive scenarios, and assessed the resilience of current strategies. Rather than producing predictions, the process broadened the organisation’s strategic scope for action and informed more robust, adaptive decision-making.

Impact/Outcome: 

1. In the period 2023–2024, a dedicated Strategic Foresight & Innovation unit was established, marking the transition from ad hoc foresight activities to a structural institutional capability.
2. Approximately 30 foresight field labs were initiated across the organisation, addressing both central strategic themes and faculty-level policy and organisational challenges. 
3. Systematic stress testing of existing strategies surfaced implicit assumptions and vulnerabilities, supporting more robust strategic choices under conditions of uncertainty.
4. More than 20 foresight briefings were produced, including targeted memos prepared for Executive Board-level discussions.
5. Thirteen foresight seminars were organised, each attracting on average around 70 participants, primarily senior leaders, deans, directors, and professional staff.
6. Four faculties were directly supported in navigating policy-relevant reorganisations and strategic adjustments, using foresight as a structured reflection and decision-support tool.
7. Seven foresight interviews were published on the university’s innovation platform, ranking among the most-read articles and contributing to broader internal engagement.
8. Insights and methods were shared externally through contributions to national and international expert sessions and policy networks, enhancing credibility beyond the home institution.
9. The approach was consolidated into a documented foresight methodology, supported by a Strategic Monitor and a Scenario Playbook, enabling replication in other institutional contexts.