1.     Situation: This case study originated from a report on the development future of Mozambique. The study complements the Mozambique Growth Diagnostic Study conducted by the London School of Economics (LSE) Growth Diagnostic Lab. The study examines Mozambique’s past and current socio-economic situation and identifies key constraints to inclusive growth. It then takes a forward-looking approach by analysing the country’s likely future along the Current Path and exploring sectoral foresight scenarios to assess their comparative and cumulative effects on sustained, inclusive growth and development. In the report:

1. sectoral scenarios are compared with one another
2. the impact of a single combined effect of all sectoral scenarios is compared to a forecast of the Current Path

We propose a forecasting horizon for these scenarios to 2043 in line with the Mozambique National Development Plan horizon.

2. Complication: An analysis using the International Futures forecasting tool suggests that Mozambique is likely to miss most of its development targets by 2043 under current trajectories due to governance issues, infrastructure bottlenecks, low agricultural productivity and limited economic diversification.

3. Solution: The comparative sectoral analysis, which models ambitious but realistic policy interventions across eight sectors (agriculture, education, governance, infrastructure, health and demographics, financial flows, manufacturing and trade), underscores that no single scenario is a panacea for achieving meaningful inclusive growth by 2043.  All scenarios boost GDP, with Infrastructure having the most significant impact, followed by the Agriculture and the Governance and Free Trade (AfCFTA) scenarios. In reducing extreme poverty, it will be the infrastructure scenario, followed by the Financial Flows, Manufacturing and Governance scenarios that have the greatest impact. In the short-to-medium term (i.e., up to 2035), the agriculture scenario has the biggest impact on GDP. The infrastructure and the agriculture scenario will have the most significant impact on poverty reduction compared to other scenarios. As a result, comprehensive effort to improve outcomes across all sectors will help set the country on a track toward inclusive growth and development.

Impact/Outcome: 

1. Resulted in the development of comprehensive models for projecting Mozambique’s economic and social development under various scenarios. 
2. Provided a detailed analysis of key economic sectors, such as agriculture, education, energy, and trade, that influence inclusive and sustainable growth in Mozambique. 
3. Enhanced understanding of systemic challenges like inequality, climate vulnerability and governance in Mozambique. 
4. Strengthened the research capacities of local institutions through partnerships and workshops. 
5. Contributed to the design or refinement of national strategies such as poverty reduction plans or inclusive economic policies.
6. Broadened policymakers’ understanding of inclusive growth scenarios and the roles of key sectors. 
7. Influenced the incorporation of sustainable and equity considerations into Mozambique’s development strategies.