Case Study Details - Global Foresight Network - Advancing inclusive development: Policy options for Burkina Faso, Guinea, Gabon, Mali and Niger

1. Situation

In recent years, the number of countries undergoing complex political transitions in Africa has increased, particularly in West and Central Africa. Recent coups have placed a strain on regional and international cooperation, and six member states are currently suspended from the African Union (AU), more than at any time in its history. These developments have strained regional cooperation, exacerbated security challenges, and cast uncertainty over governance and development trajectories.

2. Complication

On 29 January 2025, the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) — Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger — formally withdrew from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), marking the most significant crisis in West Africa’s regional integration since the founding of ECOWAS in 1975.

3. Solution

In response to these challenges, on 15 July 2023, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the African Union Commission (AUC) launched the Africa Facility to Support Inclusive Transitions (AFSIT). This initiative seeks to support African nations navigating complex political transitions by promoting a development-led approach that strengthens governance, fosters stability, and enhances resilience. Rather than focusing solely on political interventions, AFSIT prioritizes tackling the socio-economic drivers of political instability, ensuring that governance reforms are aligned with sustainable development. Against this backdrop, the UNDP approached the African Futures & Initiative program at the Institute for Security Studies (AFI-ISS) to update their country-level forecasts on Burkina Faso, Niger, Gabon, Mali and Guinea as a basis through which to seek engagement with these countries and begin a conversation on immediate, medium- and long-term development opportunities as a pathway for building state resilience and preventing crises.

The AFI-ISS team works in support of the African Union’s long-term development plan, Agenda 2063, and the AUDA-NEPAD secretariate is mandated to oversee its implementation.

Impact / Outcome

1. The report was launched on February 14th by the former President of Nigeria, His Excellency Goodluck Jonathan on the sideline of the African Union Heads of State summit in Addis Ababa. 2. By leveraging the International Futures (IFs) modeling platform (hosted and developed by the University of Denver), the individual country reports, and the summary report, provide a forward-looking analysis of socio-economic and governance challenges, assessing policy options that can drive inclusive growth and sustainable governance. 3. Each of the individual country reports examines critical issues such as economic diversification, infrastructure development, governance reforms and social inclusion. 4. The reports note that that military intervention reflects the failure of development and current approaches to governance, and what is required is renewed efforts to unlock sustainable growth that would, in turn, relieve the pressures that led to the military interventions. 5. Through scenario-based analysis, the reports offer policymakers, regional bodies and international partners actionable pathways to achieve sustainable, inclusive development and long-term stability. 6. Since its launch, there has been growing interest in the reports and the approach by national governments and interest from partners such as the European Union. 7. On 28 February, in partnership with the UNDP, report was presented to the government of Niger and outreach to Burkina Faso is ongoing.