Situation and Action: The Swiss Federal Intelligence Service has developed a crowd forecasting platform in order to improve the early detection of significant events for Swiss security policy. Open since 2024 to all the employees of the federal administration, Kompass VBS allows all users to share their predictions about security relevant questions. The individual forecasts, expressed in probabilistic terms, are aggregated into a collective forecast, based on the theory of collective intelligence and crowd forecasting. The platform is also a training tool enabling users to improve their individual critical thinking and forecasting skills.

Impact/Outcomes: By the end of 2025, the platform registers more than 1'500 users and almost 20'000 forecasts. The initial forecasts are measured to be correct 2/3 of the time and with this the platform’s accuracy has increased over time. Results are now integrated in analytical products and contribute to other foresight activities in the federal administration. Lastly, the platform promotes inter-sectoral exchange and the integration of diverse perspectives