Global Foresight Network

Futures Insights

Explore thought leadership on foresight topics, from horizon scanning to emerging technologies, and gain insights into the trends shaping the future.

Spotlight: Critical Questions for Leaders and the Foresight Methods That Unlock Them

August 2026

Critical Questions for Leaders and the Foresight Methods That Unlock Them

Briefing Paper

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Global Foresight Network

Horizon Scans

Potential threats, promising opportunities, and emerging trends can all be used as signals to guide decision-making. This collection spotlights insights and predictions from prominent experts on the issues and innovative ideas likely to shape our future.

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Signals and Trends of the Future

A horizon scan from the Global Foresight Network: accelerating global uncertainty is a central theme. Concerns about social cohesion are also widespread, from loneliness and identity-seeking to shifts in values. Climate and nature risks remain central, alongside uneven transitions in mobility, energy and regulation.

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Jake Loosararian: The Future of LLMs
03
Dava Newman: Navigating Space
04
Lasse Jonasson: The Criticality of Foresight
05
Sabrina Maniscalco: The Way Forward for Quantum Computing

Case Studies

Situation: (Context) Delft University of Technology (TU Delft) is a large public technical university operating in an increasingly volatile strategic environment. Over the past decade, the university has benefited from relatively stable conditions: predictable public funding, strong international collaboration, steady inflow of students and talent, and reliable digital and physical infrastructures. At the same time, the university functions as a complex adaptive system, characterised by distributed decision-making, high professional autonomy, and loosely coupled faculties and services. Strategy development traditionally relied on medium-term planning cycles and incremental adjustments, assuming continuity in many of these external conditions. In response to growing uncertainty after the COVID-19 crisis, the Executive Board decided to strengthen the university’s anticipatory capacity by developing a dedicated strategic foresight function within the Strategy Development directorate. Rather than producing one-off scenario reports, the ambition was to embed foresight structurally into strategy and governance processes across the organisation. Complication: (Why was there a need for foresight intervention?) TU Delft increasingly faced developments that could not be adequately addressed through conventional planning or risk management approaches. Geopolitical tensions, pressures on academic autonomy, digital and cyber risks, climate impacts on campus infrastructure, and shifting societal trust in knowledge all affected the university’s long-term viability. Many strategic plans implicitly assumed stability in these external conditions, without making those assumptions explicit or testing their robustness. Moreover, internal dynamics made it difficult to address these issues openly. Cognitive biases, institutional routines, and a tendency to focus on short-term operational concerns limited the organisation’s ability to reflect on disruptive but plausible futures. This created a growing gap between formal strategies and the underlying vulnerabilities of the institution. Solution: (Foresight methodology applied) To address this, TU Delft developed the Delft Strategic Foresight Approach (DSFA), a structured methodology designed to test strategic assumptions under conditions of deep uncertainty. The approach combines seven guiding principles with five operational levels, ranging from diagnosing uncertainty to developing strategic options. Central to the methodology is the use of external critical dependencies as an analytical lens and the application of scenario-based stress tests to existing strategies. The DSFA was developed through a series of “Foresight Field Labs” with faculties and professional services. These sessions surfaced hidden assumptions, explored plausible disruptive scenarios, and assessed the resilience of current strategies. Rather than producing predictions, the process broadened the organisation’s strategic scope for action and informed more robust, adaptive decision-making.Impact/Outcome: In the period 2023–2024, a dedicated Strategic Foresight & Innovation unit was established, marking the transition from ad hoc foresight activities to a structural institutional capability.Approximately 30 foresight field labs were initiated across the organisation, addressing both central strategic themes and faculty-level policy and organisational challenges. Systematic stress testing of existing strategies surfaced implicit assumptions and vulnerabilities, supporting more robust strategic choices under conditions of uncertainty.More than 20 foresight briefings were produced, including targeted memos prepared for Executive Board-level discussions.Thirteen foresight seminars were organised, each attracting on average around 70 participants, primarily senior leaders, deans, directors, and professional staff.Four faculties were directly supported in navigating policy-relevant reorganisations and strategic adjustments, using foresight as a structured reflection and decision-support tool.Seven foresight interviews were published on the university’s innovation platform, ranking among the most-read articles and contributing to broader internal engagement.Insights and methods were shared externally through contributions to national and international expert sessions and policy networks, enhancing credibility beyond the home institution.The approach was consolidated into a documented foresight methodology, supported by a Strategic Monitor and a Scenario Playbook, enabling replication in other institutional contexts.
Netherlands
Navigating complexity: TU Delft Strategic Foresight Approach for Higher Education Institutions
Delft University of Technology
Situation: Evonik is recognized as one of the world's leading specialty chemicals companies, deeply committed to innovation. Its dedication to R&D is substantial, with the company spending approximately 460 million euros annually on R&D, which reinforces its reputation as a frontrunner in the specialty chemicals sector. To sustain this success, Evonik established Creavis, a strategic innovation unit, to help propel the company towards new markets and technologies Complication: The need for strategic foresight stemmed from the imperative to focus on long-term growth and mitigate risk by moving beyond Evonik's current product scope and business activities. To ensure Evonik remained a frontrunner, it needed a dedicated structure to focus on long-term, disruptive innovations. This focus on the future was backed by investment: about 10% of Evonik's total R&D spend is specifically committed to R&D that goes beyond the current product scope. Proactive exploration and pilot projects were required to broaden and diversify the company's portfolio, which helps in mitigating business risks linked to market volatility. Solution: Creavis explored the following foresight approaches:Exploratory Scenario Approach: This method is used to develop a realistic view of possible future scenarios. Evonik has, for example, developed "The World in 2040 – Scenarios for the future" and "Five scenarios of the future of the specialty chemicals industry". STEEP Trend Analysis: This established method is used to monitor societal, technological, economical, ecological, and political factors.Wild Cards: The Foresight unit, in collaboration with Group Controlling, developed 95 so-called wild cards which describe low-probability, high-impact events.Impact/Outcome:Revenue Growth: Evonik reported strong revenue growth, increasing from 13.3 billion euros in 2013 to 18.5 billion euros by 2022. Sustained R&D Investment: The company maintains a substantial annual R&D spend of approximately 460 million euros. Focus on Disruptive Innovation: Approximately 10% of total R&D spend is specifically committed to R&D that goes beyond the current product scope, focusing on long-term, disruptive innovations.Established Frontrunner Position: The dedication of Creavis ensures Evonik’s long-term frontrunner position in the specialty chemicals arena. Portfolio Diversification and Risk Mitigation: Creavis’s exploration and pilot projects in future-focused technologies have empowered Evonik to broaden and diversify its portfolio, which helps in mitigating business risks related to market volatility. Developed Comprehensive Wild Cards: Evonik Foresight and Group Controlling developed 95 so-called wild cards which describe low-probability, high-impact events. Established Foresight Scenarios: The company developed major strategic documents, including "The World in 2040 – Scenarios for the future" and "Five scenarios of the future of the specialty chemicals industry". Cultivated Interdisciplinary Innovation: Creavis serves as one of the main entry points for new scientists into Evonik, helping to distribute the spirit of interdisciplinary innovation throughout the wider organization. Produced Public Foresight Content: The team regularly publishes insights on future topics, covering subjects such as "Cheese without cows," "Geoengineering," and "Robots in daily life" in publications.
Germany
Creavis: Evonik's Strategic Foresight Unit for Investing in Long-Term Disruptive Growth
EDHEC Business School
Situation: Spanning over a century, the automobile industry has been emblematic of steady growth, prosperity, epitomizing the desire for individual mobility, the rise of the middle class and the economic development of nations. Its journey from the shift to mass production, through the integration of electronics, to the current electrification and digitalization age, and the rise of mobility-as-a-service, has witnessed phases of stability, evolution, and revolution. Complication: Traditionally rooted in the luxury segment, Daimler and its passenger car division Mercedes-Benz recognized that to stay relevant and ahead, it needed to not only adapt to the present but also anticipate the future. This demanded insights into changing business environments, consumer behaviour and needs and a comprehensive understanding of the evolving ecosystem in which it operates. Solution: Foresight through research: Daimler, keeping the future in focus, established the Society and Technology Research Group (STRG) in 1979. Located in Berlin and later bolstered by branches in Palo Alto, Kyoto, and Beijing, this team comprised, on average, 30 scientists from diverse disciplines such as transportation engineering, sociology, psychology, social science, and various advanced technology domains.Anticipating the future: With intensifying competition, Mercedes transitioned from simply meeting current demands to discerning and influencing market shifts, strategizing for the next 5, 10, and 20 yearsPortfolio evolution: STRG’s insights facilitated Mercedes in extending and fine-tuning its product lineup. The rising urbanization trend and anticipated changes in mobility patterns led to their partnership with Swatch for the Smart Car in 1994, to early research on mobility services, global issues like climate change, changing customer needs and integrative context scenarios for future mobility. For the truck and van divisions of Daimler STRG created scenarios on future logistics and transportation helping to fine-tune the product portfolio, regional strategies and related services. In 2014, STRG was integrated into the Mercedes Technology Center in Böblingen/Sindelfingen (near Stuttgart) reinventing itself as ‘‘PIONEERING NeXt’’ by integrating the Startup Autobahn platform of Daimler, Advanced Technology Monitoring, the Innovation Lab (Innovationswerkstatt) and Customer Insights on innovations in an early stage. Thus, foresight on societal trends was tightly connected with advanced technological developments, long-term oriented research grounded with dedicated in-house innovation projects (creating minimal viable products) and extended collaboration with international startup companies, combining idea generation in the innovation lab (Innovationswerkstatt) with customer research and insights (e.g. by implementing the Design Thinking method).Impact/Outcome:Financial Growth: The company achieved substantial financial growth, moving from revenues of approximately 46 billion (when including Chrysler, which was subsequently divested in 2007) in 1999 to 172.7 billion by 2019. This financial evolution highlights the significance of the company’s strategic choices, including exploring emerging market opportunities while consolidating current market positions. Product and Service Expansion: Foresight facilitated the expansion of the brand and product portfolio. STRG’s analysis of mobility patterns led to the original partnership with Swatch for the Smart Car in 1994, and later contributed to strategic decisions regarding mobility services, climate change, and integrated contexts. Car2go Development: STRG’s project exploring new mobility services identified the inconvenience of station-based car sharing as a limitation. Based on this, STRG initiated a small pilot project in Berlin to test a flexible car-sharing concept with open drives and one-way trips. This concept, which increased attractiveness to customers, was later scaled up by a newly formed business innovation unit into the globally known "car2go" service. Truck Driver-Oriented Innovations: Through "early detection," STRG addressed the non-obvious issue of the lack of qualified truck drivers in transport markets. This led to the creation of an innovation team focused on the driver cabin (the working, living, and sleeping environment) to gain a competitive edge. Four features, including a massage seat, better insulation, and a larger flexible bed, were subsequently launched in the market. New Health Innovation Package: STRG’s trend analysis on "New Health," which emphasized a holistic understanding of wellbeing, led to the definition of a new innovation search field. This resulted in the integration of health-related innovations, such as a massage seat using the "hot stone principle," into vehicle concepts. Automotive Room Scent Development: Analyzing the "experience society" trend, STRG identified smell as a neglected sensory dimension in the car interior. The foresight team developed the concept of a luxury "automotive room scent" with individual choices. This innovation, along with the "New Health" concepts, resulted in the launch of an innovation package (including air-balance and seating-comfort packages) in the 2013 S-Class. Outside-In Perspective: The intervention successfully established an "outside-in" perspective within the company, learning about complex and dynamic environments by focusing on long-term developments in the business environment, society, and markets. Global Intelligence: The establishment and maintenance of the Society and Technology Research Group (STRG), located in Germany, with international branches in Palo Alto, Kyoto, and Beijing, ensured a comprehensive global outlook on future trends and mobility challenges.
Germany, USA, Japan, People's Republic of China
Daimler's STRG Driving New Business Development
Daimler Truck, EDHEC Business School
Situation: Nvidia, originally recognized for its graphics-based computing, has evolved into a global semiconductor powerhouse. Within a span of five years, its market value catapulted from $31bn to a staggering $505bn, surpassing industry behemoths like Intel. Founded in 1993, Nvidia’s co-founder, Jen-Hsun Huang, firmly adheres to a philosophy of relentless innovation, often quipping, ‘‘only the paranoid survives’’ in the fast-paced semiconductor sector. Complication: Nvidia operates in the fiercely competitive semiconductor arena, pitting its strengths against titans like AMD and Intel. As Huang articulates, Nvidia finds itself amidst «giant companies pursuing the same giant opportunity.” Their challenge magnifies as they cater to fast-changing needs of tech companies like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Alibaba. These giants, relying on Nvidia’s chips already for their cloud infrastructure, are increasingly veering towards artificial intelligence (AI). Solution: Investment and acquisitions: With an impressive portfolio of 23 acquisitions and 62 investments, as reported by CrunchBase, Nvidia with its Inception program is a proactive player in the start-up ecosystem. Acquiring the key capabilities for future markets: Nvidia continuously invests in areas poised for future relevance. A case in point is their acquisition of Mellanox in 2019, a leader in advanced AI-centric networking. Owing to this move, Nvidia now commands a dominating 78% share in this high-performance networking niche. Integrating with the global developer community: Recognizing the always looming parity in hardware offerings, especially when competing against deep pocketed rivals such as Intel and AMD, Nvidia championed an ecosystem engineering strategy. It developed with its CUDA AI platform the go-to software for AI developers, and crucially, it runs only on Nvidia’s chips. By granting free access to select AI researchers, Nvidia ensured a strong foothold in the community and with its future customers. NVIDIA inception: Nvidia’s Inception program is a testament to its commitment to innovation. By supporting tech start-ups throughout their life cycle, Nvidia stays attuned to the pulse of technological evolution, and is funneling potential customers towards its products.Impact/Outcomes: Massive Market Value Increase: Within a span of five years, NVIDIA's market value experienced massive growth, catapulting from $31 billion to a staggering $505 billion. Frontrunner Status in AI: The company successfully emerged as the frontrunner in AI-centric chip design. Global Semiconductor Evolution: NVIDIA evolved from a company primarily recognized for its graphics-based computing into a global semiconductor powerhouse. Cloud Computing Dominance: NVIDIA anchored its dominance in the cloud computing landscape. Strategic Investment Portfolio: The company demonstrated commitment to the future through an impressive portfolio of 23 acquisitions and 62 investments, largely managed through its Inception program. Proprietary Ecosystem Control: Secured AI leadership by building a proprietary developer ecosystem around the CUDA AI platform. This system is crucial as the software runs exclusively on NVIDIA’s chips, securing a strategic competitive advantage. High-Performance Networking Market Share: By acquiring Mellanox, a leader in AI-centric networking, NVIDIA secured a commanding 78% share in this high-performance niche. Competitive Outperformance: By consistently introducing innovative products, the company has successfully outpaced established rivals such as Intel and AMD. Future Customer Acquisition: Granting free access to the CUDA AI platform helped ensure a strong foothold in the developer community and with its future customers. Continuous Attunement to Technology: The Inception program supports start-ups throughout their life cycle, allowing NVIDIA to stay attuned to the pulse of technological evolution and funnel potential customers toward its products.
USA
NVIDIA's Dual Strategy: Future-looking Intelligence with Proprietary Ecosystem Building
NVIDIA, EDHEC Business School
Situation: Bosch is a prominent German engineering giant, recognized historically for pioneering innovations such as the ABS technology utilized in cars and motion sensors found in smartphones. The company maintains a vast global presence, operating through a network of over 400 subsidiaries spread across 60 countries. Reflecting its commitment to innovation, Bosch traditionally invests a substantial portion of its income, approximately 8% of its revenues, in Research and Development (R&D). Complication: The need for a strategic foresight intervention arose because a predominant portion of Bosch’s revenue stems from its core automobile sector. This sector was undergoing a rapid and transformative evolution driven by two major factors: the shift toward electric and autonomous vehicles, and simultaneous breakthroughs in mobility services. This volatile environment necessitated an agile adaptation by Bosch simply to maintain its leadership position. Furthermore, emerging technologies beyond the current scope offered Bosch fresh avenues and pathways for business expansion that needed to be proactively identified and explored. Solution: To manage the mobility evolution proactively, Bosch employed a multi-faceted, scenario-based strategic methodology: Scenario Dialogue: Scenarios were harnessed as a foundational platform for strategic discussions across global headquarters and the helms of its various business and regional units. Business Wargaming: Utilizing the developed scenarios, Bosch held specialized workshops that enabled leaders to anticipate competitor strategies and draft effective responses to potential market moves. Strategy Playbox: This technique utilized morphological box principles in scenario-based strategizing to generate a spectrum of consistent strategies. This ensures that specific strategies can be deployed flexibly when the environment shifts or when different market requirements are encountered.Impact and Outcome:1. Doubled Revenues: Over the past ten years, Bosch successfully doubled its revenues. 2. Sustained R&D Commitment: Bosch steadfastly backed its R&D commitments, despite the dynamic and challenging industry environment. 3. Successfully Navigated Automotive Shift: The company successfully navigated the shifting automotive market demands caused by the rapid evolution toward electric and autonomous vehicles and breakthroughs in mobility services. 4. Achieved Leadership in E-Bikes: Bosch successfully managed its entry into the high-end electric bike market, a domain where it emerged as a technology leader despite being a late entrant. 5. Guided Innovation: The establishment of a Global Trend Network provided timely guidance for the company’s subsequent product and service innovations. 6. Enabled Strategic Discussion: The use of Scenario Dialogue provided a standardized platform for strategic discussions across Bosch's global headquarters and its various business and regional units. 7. Anticipated Competition: Business Wargaming workshops enabled leaders to anticipate competitor strategies and draft proactive responses. 8. Generated Consistent Strategies: The Strategy Playbox utilized morphological box principles to generate a spectrum of consistent strategies that could be deployed flexibly as environmental and market requirements shifted
Germany
Bosch’s Proactive Adaptation Amid the Mobility Evolution
Robert Bosch
Situation: Mondelez International, the $90 billion global snacking powerhouse responsible for brands like Oreo and Milka, operates with a strong global footprint across over 80 countries. This operation takes place within a complex and dynamic external environment. In 2018, the company unveiled a new global strategy centered on the mission of "snacking made right," which explicitly requires them to "lead the future of snacking" around the world. The company's CEO, Dirk Van de Put, strongly promoted the idea of leading from the future, emphasizing the need to envision and understand the future so that the company can collectively create a strategy for long-term success. Complication: The need for a formal foresight intervention arose because the company had to translate its new mission of "leading the future of snacking" into actionable strategic outcomes. The leadership team recognized that to sustain long-term growth in a dynamic market, their strategy needed to be rooted in future thinking. This required understanding what the future of snacking would look like, not just in a couple of years, but over the longer term. Foresight was necessary to promote long-term thinking and spearhead a forward-looking culture across the organization, ensuring company leaders became "ambassadors of the future" with a clear vision for the next decade. Solution: Mondelez established a standalone Strategic Foresight function to act as the centre of excellence for future thinking. They deployed a small foresight unit, initially just two people, based on the Prometheus model. This model avoids relying on a large, central "Oracle" department; instead, it leverages the knowledge, passion, and expertise of the entire company to champion the foresight approach. This team building a strategic foresight community, already 30 people, who are trained and empowered to act as local strategic foresight champions in their respective business units. The core methodology employed is an impact-oriented trend management process consisting of three phases: Perceiving (detecting change through horizon scanning and trend management)Prospecting (understanding which changes are critical for the business and prioritizing significant trends), Probing (acting upon prioritized changes by embedding trend management into strategic activities)To support this, they use a proprietary interactive trend management platform called FTR, which hosts their holistic trend framework and includes modules for trend evaluation, prioritization, and deriving opportunities and threats. Furthermore, scenario planning is utilized routinely to understand critical future states, ensuring the foresight approach is fully embedded into the company’s key strategic processes.
USA, Singapore
Mondelez International-Leading the Future of Snacking
EDHEC Business School
Situation and Action: The Swiss Federal Intelligence Service has developed a crowd forecasting platform in order to improve the early detection of significant events for Swiss security policy. Open since 2024 to all the employees of the federal administration, Kompass VBS allows all users to share their predictions about security relevant questions. The individual forecasts, expressed in probabilistic terms, are aggregated into a collective forecast, based on the theory of collective intelligence and crowd forecasting. The platform is also a training tool enabling users to improve their individual critical thinking and forecasting skills.Impact/Outcomes: By the end of 2025, the platform registers more than 1'500 users and almost 20'000 forecasts. The initial forecasts are measured to be correct 2/3 of the time and with this the platform’s accuracy has increased over time. Results are now integrated in analytical products and contribute to other foresight activities in the federal administration. Lastly, the platform promotes inter-sectoral exchange and the integration of diverse perspectives
Switzerland
Kompass VBS Crowd Forecasting Platform
Switzerland Government
Founded in 1984 from a Stanford University project, Cisco Systems became a global leader in networking solutions. Challenge: By 2011, major US tech companies heavily leaned on acquiring startups for innovation. As described by an executive, «Every capable startup was instantly acquired by one of the five tech giants.» This approach began to fail to create sufficient innovations as startups were bought prematurely, often missing the mark on discovering breakthrough technologies. Actions: To pivot from this lack of innovation, Stephan Monterde spearheaded the «Cisco Technology Radar» initiative: Continuous scanning: Was organized through a core team of 3 and a network of 40 scouts that covered all technology sectors of CISCO. Organized interpretation: The scouts worked also as authors of technology profiles and scouts that were already longer in the team along with the core team worked as editors that ensured quality and readability of the technology briefs. Foresight Radar: The foresight radar structure is shown below. It is organized along the product domains, which ensures clarify about who is responsible to monitor further and respond to new technologies. Actionable insights: For the nervous system to function, it is key to connect to the power structure of the organization, that actions will be triggered. At Cisco this was through the committee of the 13 fellow engineers which are consulted and advise on all technology related decisions at Cisco.
USA
Corporate Foresight at Cisco: Introduction of the Technology Radar
University of Aarhus
1. Situation: Voluntary Carbon Markets (VCMs) are systems where companies or individuals can buy carbon credits to offset their greenhouse gas emissions. VCMs have many promising aspects, but they do not constitute direct emissions reduction. Additionally, While VCMs create new market-based incentives for carbon abatement, their integrity is often critiqued as lackluster, un-transparent, and poorly verified.2. Complication: The carbon crisis and energy transition are “wicked problems” that exist in dynamic, nonlinear environments, where solutions from predetermined paths cannot be relied upon with certainty. As a result, effective carbon offsetting, requires a nuanced understanding the systems that underpin the market, and strategic projections that propose many possible solutions to uncertain outcomes. Addressing these challenges necessitates integrating climate foresight into carbon market research - allowing teams to move from silos to systems, and rethink the structures that incentivize desired outcomes. Foresight will also allow businesses and investors to consider multiple stakeholders and complex ecosystem interactions.3. Solution: This article uses Brazilian climate-tech startup Lux Carbon Standard (LuxCS) as a case study to evaluate the role of anticipatory governance - a growing futures concept - in transforming VCMs. By applying climate and strategic foresight, systems thinking, and theories of change, LuxCS is building a democratized, transparent, and effective carbon credit market, initially adapted to Brazil and its biomes. Alongside their foresight integration, LuxCS is using cutting edge techniques including blockchain, satellite monitoring, and innovative biodiversity calculations, to verify the integrity of carbon credits. LuxCS is driving systemic change in VCMs, as their standards can be scaled globally. Nevertheless, while the opportunities are great, this study also explores foresight exercises that reveal how LuxCS’ strategy could result in perverse outcomes for VCMs and the energy transition as a whole.Impact/Outcome:Strategic foresight tools have enabled LuxCS and its partners to navigate deep uncertainty, providing actionable frameworks for decision-making and long-term planning in the VCM ecosystem. By leveraging positive narratives and informed optimism, LuxCS is helping to shift perceptions around carbon markets. LuxCS’s initiative democratizes market access, benefiting all stakeholders from local landowners to global buyers. The integration of advanced technologies—such as blockchain, satellite monitoring, and innovative biodiversity metrics—has improved transparency, traceability, and the credibility of carbon credits. LuxCS’s vision, together with Brazil’s evolving regulations, positions the country as a potential leader in global carbon markets. Achieving this vision will require ongoing collective action and agency from all stakeholders. Bill 182/2024 serves as a key regulatory lever for transforming global carbon markets. Achieving a “virtuous tipping point” in the VCM will require ongoing collective action, agency, and the convergence of narratives, foresight, and systems change to ensure sustainable, high-integrity outcomes for all stakeholders.
Brazil
Climate Foresight: Transforming the Voluntary Carbon Markets
Disruptive Futures Institute
1. SituationIn recent years, the number of countries undergoing complex political transitions in Africa has increased, particularly in West and Central Africa. Recent coups have placed a strain on regional and international cooperation, and six member states are currently suspended from the African Union (AU), more than at any time in its history. These developments have strained regional cooperation, exacerbated security challenges, and cast uncertainty over governance and development trajectories.2. ComplicationOn 29 January 2025, the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) — Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger — formally withdrew from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), marking the most significant crisis in West Africa’s regional integration since the founding of ECOWAS in 1975. 3. SolutionIn response to these challenges, on 15 July 2023, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the African Union Commission (AUC) launched the Africa Facility to Support Inclusive Transitions (AFSIT). This initiative seeks to support African nations navigating complex political transitions by promoting a development-led approach that strengthens governance, fosters stability, and enhances resilience. Rather than focusing solely on political interventions, AFSIT prioritizes tackling the socio-economic drivers of political instability, ensuring that governance reforms are aligned with sustainable development. Against this backdrop, the UNDP approached the African Futures & Initiative program at the Institute for Security Studies (AFI-ISS) to update their country-level forecasts on Burkina Faso, Niger, Gabon, Mali and Guinea as a basis through which to seek engagement with these countries and begin a conversation on immediate, medium- and long-term development opportunities as a pathway for building state resilience and preventing crises.The AFI-ISS team works in support of the African Union’s long-term development plan, Agenda 2063, and the AUDA-NEPAD secretariate is mandated to oversee its implementation.
Burkina Faso, Gabon, Guinea, Mali, Niger | Government
Advancing inclusive development: Policy options for Burkina Faso, Guinea, Gabon, Mali and Niger
Institute for Security Studies Africa (ISS)
1.     Situation: This case study originated from a report on the development future of Mozambique. The study complements the Mozambique Growth Diagnostic Study conducted by the London School of Economics (LSE) Growth Diagnostic Lab. The study examines Mozambique’s past and current socio-economic situation and identifies key constraints to inclusive growth. It then takes a forward-looking approach by analysing the country’s likely future along the Current Path and exploring sectoral foresight scenarios to assess their comparative and cumulative effects on sustained, inclusive growth and development. In the report:sectoral scenarios are compared with one anotherthe impact of a single combined effect of all sectoral scenarios is compared to a forecast of the Current PathWe propose a forecasting horizon for these scenarios to 2043 in line with the Mozambique National Development Plan horizon.2. Complication: An analysis using the International Futures forecasting tool suggests that Mozambique is likely to miss most of its development targets by 2043 under current trajectories due to governance issues, infrastructure bottlenecks, low agricultural productivity and limited economic diversification.3. Solution: The comparative sectoral analysis, which models ambitious but realistic policy interventions across eight sectors (agriculture, education, governance, infrastructure, health and demographics, financial flows, manufacturing and trade), underscores that no single scenario is a panacea for achieving meaningful inclusive growth by 2043.  All scenarios boost GDP, with Infrastructure having the most significant impact, followed by the Agriculture and the Governance and Free Trade (AfCFTA) scenarios. In reducing extreme poverty, it will be the infrastructure scenario, followed by the Financial Flows, Manufacturing and Governance scenarios that have the greatest impact. In the short-to-medium term (i.e., up to 2035), the agriculture scenario has the biggest impact on GDP. The infrastructure and the agriculture scenario will have the most significant impact on poverty reduction compared to other scenarios. As a result, comprehensive effort to improve outcomes across all sectors will help set the country on a track toward inclusive growth and development.Impact/Outcome: Resulted in the development of comprehensive models for projecting Mozambique’s economic and social development under various scenarios. Provided a detailed analysis of key economic sectors, such as agriculture, education, energy, and trade, that influence inclusive and sustainable growth in Mozambique. Enhanced understanding of systemic challenges like inequality, climate vulnerability and governance in Mozambique. Strengthened the research capacities of local institutions through partnerships and workshops. Contributed to the design or refinement of national strategies such as poverty reduction plans or inclusive economic policies.Broadened policymakers’ understanding of inclusive growth scenarios and the roles of key sectors. Influenced the incorporation of sustainable and equity considerations into Mozambique’s development strategies.
Mozambique
Unveiling Potential: Boosting Inclusive Growth and Development in Mozambique
Institute for Security Studies Africa (ISS)
1.Situation:This case study originated from a report on the development future of the East African Community (EAC), one of eight regional economic communities (RECs) recognized by the African Union. The EAC consists of eight members situated in East and Central Africa: Burundi, DR Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda. The report was initialised by the African Futures & Innovation team as part of its ongoing update of the development prospects of individual African countries. We work in support of the African Union Development Agency - New Partnership for Africa’s Development (AUDA-NEPAD) which is mandated to implement and track progress with the African Union’s Agenda 2063 long-term development plan. 2.ComplictaionEAC member states are at differing points in their development trajectory, and each requires unique interventions to spur economic and societal growth and development. 3.SolutionThe report discusses the region's demographics, economy, and informal sector with a forecast horizon to 2043, starting with a Current Path or business-as-usual forecast. The analysis then showcases the development potential of the REC in eight sectoral scenarios, highlighting the importance of governance and infrastructure improvements for economic and social development while also addressing challenges such as energy demand and poverty, suggesting that strategic initiatives across all sectors could greatly benefit the region's prosperity and stability. It emphasizes the potential impacts of these scenarios on GDP, GDP per capita, life expectancy, education, industrialization, poverty reduction, inequality and carbon emission. The final section of the report presents the combined impact of the eight sectoral scenarios, comparing the combined sectoral scenario with the Current Path, and the sectoral scenarios' impact with one another. The purpose of AFI-ISS is to support and inform a futures perspective in support of Agenda 2063, primarily by working with African governments, regional organizations, and policymakers engaged in Africa’s development.
Burundi, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda
Geographic report: East African Community
Institute for Security Studies Africa (ISS)
1. Scenario: Malawi's population growth presents both opportunities and challenges. Between 1990 and 2019, the population more than doubled from 8.5 million to 20.6 million and is expected to reach 41.1 million by 2043. This rapid expansion strains social services, infrastructure, and economic resources, making effective planning essential. Malawi’s economy has shown resilience, with its GDP at US$12.01 billion in 2020. Projections indicate an increase to US$19.56 billion by 2030 and an impressive US$235.3 billion by 2063, highlighting its growth potential.2. Complication: Challenges such as high poverty rates persist, with 43.5% of the population living below the US$1.90 per day extreme poverty threshold in 2019. Without significant interventions, this rate will remain above that of similar low-income African countries by 2043. Infrastructure remains another critical area of concern, particularly in energy access. In 2020, only 18% of Malawians had access to electricity, well below the 34% average for low-income Africa. Even with projected improvements, only 26.5% will have electricity access by 2030, falling short of the government's 50% target. This highlights the need for significant investment in the energy sector to support economic development.3. Solutions: To address these challenges, the study explores various scenarios. The Malawi Case Study from the Institute for Security Studies African Futures and Innovation (AFI) program provides an in-depth analysis of Malawi’s developmental trajectory through Current Path forecasting and various scenario analyses. The study examines key factors such as demographics, economic growth, poverty, infrastructure, and governance, offering insights into potential strategies for sustainable development.Impact/Outcome:The Agriculture and Rural Development scenario emphasizes boosting agricultural productivity, which could make Malawi a net food exporter, increasing exports from 5.7 million metric tons in 2030 to 52.7 million metric tons by 2063. The Human Capital Push scenario prioritizes education and health, targeting a reduction in fertility rates from 3.4 births per woman to 2.3 by 2030. This demographic shift could enable Malawi to achieve a demographic dividend by 2033, eight years earlier than the Current Path forecast. The Business First scenario promotes economic diversification beyond agriculture and encourages investment in manufacturing and services, although it may initially slow household consumption (66.7% of GDP by 2030, down from 78.7%). A Combined scenario (MW2063) integrates these interventions, envisioning rapid economic growth at an average of 8.5% from 2022 to 2030, achieving lower-middle-income status by 2032 and upper-middle-income status by 2058. Under this scenario, extreme poverty could be nearly eradicated by 2043, 14 years ahead of current projections. To achieve these ambitious goals, the study recommends improving governance, enhancing public financial management, investing in agriculture and infrastructure, and fostering economic diversification. By implementing these strategies, which are aligned with the MW2063 vision, Malawi has the potential to transform into a more prosperous and sustainable economy in the coming decades.
Malawi
Foresight in support of Malawi's long term development aspirations
Institute for Security Studies Africa (ISS)
The Foresight Advisory Panel supports the mid-term review of Malaysia’s National Fourth Industrial Revolution Policy (N4IRP) by providing forward-looking guidance on emerging technologies and stress-testing the country’s digital strategy across multiple futures. The panel aims to make Malaysia’s digital policies more resilient, adaptive, and aligned with a rapidly changing technological landscape, while encouraging innovation and early risk management.
Malaysia | Government, Technology
Foresight Advisory Panel

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